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Valuing Simple Multiple-Exercise Real Options in Infrastructure Projects

机译:在基础设施项目中评估简单的多锻炼实物期权

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摘要

The revenue risk is considerable in infrastructure project financing arrangements such as build-operate-transfer (BOT). A potential mitigation strategy for the revenue risk is a governmental revenue guarantee, where the government secures a minimum amount of revenue for a project. Such a guarantee is: (1) only redeemable at distinct points in time; and (2) more economical if the government limits the guarantee's availability to the early portions of a BOT's concession period. Hence, a guarantee characterized by this type of structure takes the form of either a Bermudan or a simple multiple-exercise real option, depending upon the number of exercise opportunities afforded. The multi-least-squares Monte Carlo technique is presented and illustrated as a promising approach to determine the fair value of this variety of real option. This method is far more flexible than prevailing approaches, so it represents an important step toward improving risk mitigation and facilitating contractual and financial negotiations in BOT projects.
机译:在基础设施项目融资安排中,例如建造-经营-转让(BOT),收益风险很大。降低收入风险的一种潜在的缓解策略是政府收入保证,其中政府确保项目的最低收入。这样的保证是:(1)仅可在不同的时间点兑换; (2)如果政府将担保的可获得性限制在BOT优惠期的早期,则更为经济。因此,根据提供的锻炼机会的数量,以这种类型的结构为特征的担保采取百慕大或简单的多练习实物期权的形式。提出并举例说明了最小二乘蒙特卡洛技术,这是一种确定各种实物期权公允价值的有前途的方法。这种方法比现行方法要灵活得多,因此代表了在BOT项目中改善风险缓解和促进合同和财务谈判的重要一步。

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