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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of International Money and Finance >What macroeconomic conditions lead financial crises?
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What macroeconomic conditions lead financial crises?

机译：什么宏观经济条件领导金融危机？

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Research has suggested that a rapid pace of nonfinancial borrowing reliably precedes financial crises, placing the pace of debt growth at the center of frameworks for the deployment of macroprudential policies. I reconsider the role of asset-prices and current account deficits as leading indicators of financial crises. Run-ups in equity and house prices and a widening of the current account deficit have substantially larger (and more statisticallysignificant) effects than debt growth on the probability of a financial crisis in standard crisis-prediction models. The analysis highlights the value of graphs of predicted crisis probabilities in an assessment of predictors. Nonetheless, the economic and statistical significance of the results is much stronger when the set of crises around the world in the late 2000s are included in the analysis, highlighting challenges in empirical analyses of (infrequent) financial crises. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
机译：研究表明，不懈借入非金融借贷的快速步伐先在金融危机前，将债务增长的步伐放置在框架中心部署宏观规范。我重新考虑资产价格和经常账户赤字作为金融危机的领先指标的作用。股权和房价的持续​​增加以及经常账户赤字的扩大效应大得多（更大的统计学）的效果，而不是标准危机预测模型的金融危机概率的债务增长。分析突出了预测危机概率的图表的价值。尽管如此，当2000年代后期的全球危机纳入分析时，结果的经济和统计学意义更强大，突出了（罕见）金融危机的实证分析挑战。 elsevier有限公司出版

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