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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of International Money and Finance >Exchange market pressure in OECD and emerging economies: Domestic vs. external factors and capital flows in the old and new normal
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Exchange market pressure in OECD and emerging economies: Domestic vs. external factors and capital flows in the old and new normal

机译：经合组织和新兴经济体的外汇市场压力：新旧常态下的国内与外部因素以及资本流动

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摘要

We study the ways domestic and external global factors (such as risk appetite, global liquidity, U.S. monetary policy, and commodity prices) affected the exchange market pressure before and after the global financial crisis, as well as the role of these factors during the Federal Reserve's tapering episode. Utilizing a comprehensive database on capital controls, we investigate whether control measures have a significant impact on mitigating exchange market pressure associated with capital flows [net and gross]. Using quarterly data over the 2000-2014 period and a dynamic panel model estimation, we find that external factors played a significant role in driving exchange market pressure for both OECD countries and emerging market countries, with a larger impact on the latter. While the effect of net capital flows on exchange market pressure is muted, short-term gross portfolio inflows and outflows comprise important factors that account for exchange market pressure. Shortterm portfolio flows and long-term foreign direct investment flows have a significant impact on exchange market pressure for emerging market economies and no significant effect for OECD countries. Capital controls seem to significantly reduce the exchange market pressure, although the economic size of this impact is highly dependent on the institutional quality. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：我们研究了全球和金融危机前后国内外因素的影响方式（例如风险偏好，全球流动性，美国货币政策和商品价格）如何影响外汇市场压力，以及这些因素在联邦期间的作用。预备队的逐渐缩减剧集。利用关于资本管制的综合数据库，我们调查了管制措施是否对减轻与资本流动[净额和毛额]相关的外汇市场压力产生重大影响。使用2000-2014年期间的季度数据和动态面板模型估计，我们发现外部因素在推动OECD国家和新兴市场国家的外汇市场压力方面发挥了重要作用，对后者的影响更大。尽管净资本流动对外汇市场压力的影响被减弱，但短期投资组合的总流入和流出却是导致外汇市场压力的重要因素。短期投资组合流量和长期外国直接投资流量对新兴市场经济体的外汇市场压力有重大影响，而对经合组织国家则没有重大影响。资本管制似乎大大减轻了外汇市场的压力，尽管这种影响的经济规模在很大程度上取决于机构的质量。 （C）2015 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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