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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of International Money and Finance >Currency crises and institutions
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Currency crises and institutions

机译：货币危机和制度

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摘要

This study furthers recent literature on currency crises and institutions. The main objective is to re-evaluate the causes of currency crises by focusing on the role played by a broader array of institutional factors and crisis episodes than have previously been considered while at the same time controlling for economic factors. Our dataset consists of over 30 countries covering 13 institutional factors for the period 1984-2002. Two questions are addressed. They are (1) what mix of institutions may contribute to or set the stage for a currency crisis? and (2) what mix of institutions may affect the depth of currency crises as measured by a decline in output? Our findings reveal that institutional as well as economic factors affect the probability of currency crises and that worse institutions are associated with bigger contractions in output during the crisis. In general, our strongest results regarding institutions show that corruption, a de facto fixed exchange rate regime, weak government stability, and weak law and order increase the probability of a currency crisis. We find mixed evidence that deposit insurance, the removal of capital controls, a lack of central bank independence, financial liberalization, and civil law increase the chance of crisis. We find a similar set of factors worsens the contraction in output during a crisis except for deposit insurance, which we find moderates the contraction in output.
机译：这项研究进一步拓展了有关货币危机和制度的文献。主要目标是通过关注比以前考虑的同时更能控制经济因素的更广泛的制度因素和危机事件所起的作用，来重新评估货币危机的成因。我们的数据集包含30多个国家/地区，涵盖了1984-2002年期间的13个机构因素。解决了两个问题。它们是（1）哪些机构组合可能导致货币危机或为货币危机奠定基础？ （2）以产出下降来衡量，哪些机构的组合可能会影响货币危机的深度？我们的发现表明，制度因素和经济因素都会影响货币危机的可能性，而更糟糕的制度则与危机期间产出的更大收缩有关。总的来说，我们在机构方面的最强结果表明，腐败，事实上的固定汇率制度，弱于政府的稳定以及脆弱的法律和秩序会增加发生货币危机的可能性。我们发现混杂的证据表明，存款保险，取消资本管制，缺乏中央银行的独立性，金融自由化和民法增加了发生危机的机会。我们发现，在危机期间，类似的一系列因素会使产出收缩恶化，但存款保险除外，我们发现这会缓解产出收缩。

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