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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of international trade & economic development >Effects of the Regional Trading Arrangements on Trade: Evidence from the NAFTA, ANZCER and ASEAN Countries, 1989-2000
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Effects of the Regional Trading Arrangements on Trade: Evidence from the NAFTA, ANZCER and ASEAN Countries, 1989-2000

机译：区域贸易安排对贸易的影响：NAFTA，ANZCER和东盟国家的证据，1989-2000年

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Using the modified gravity model, this study examines whether the free trade areas of NAFTA, ANZCER and ASEAN would result in trade creation among the member countries and trade diversion with the non-member countries. Further, it applies Linder's income similarity concept to explain the trade patterns in the developed and developing countries within these free trade areas. First, the results suggest that the implementations of the free trade areas have facilitated higher trade among the member countries, particularly the ANZCER and ASEAN countries. However, among all three free trade areas, the formation of the ANZCER free trade area has resulted in trade diversion with non-member countries, whereas that of the ASEAN free trade area has resulted in a trade increase with non-member countries. Surprisingly, the formation of the NAFTA free trade area has no significant effect on trade with non-member countries as their trade flows remain quite low even before its implementation. Second, the result indicates that the trade-enhancing effect of income similarity is confirmed for the developing rather than developed member countries. The developing member countries with similar incomes would trade extensively more with each other. This result can be partly explained by Hanink's income threshold concept, which argues that the income similarity effect is only applicable to developed countries with very small difference in incomes. Given the heterogeneous country sample in this study, the substantial income differences among the developed member countries would probably account for the lack of income similarity effect in these countries.
机译：使用修正的引力模型，该研究检验了北美自由贸易协定，澳新军委和东盟的自由贸易区是否会导致成员国之间的贸易创造以及与非成员国之间的贸易转移。此外，它使用林德的收入相似性概念来解释这些自由贸易区中发达国家和发展中国家的贸易模式。首先，结果表明，自由贸易区的实施促进了成员国之间，特别是澳新经济与合作组织和东盟国家之间更高的贸易。但是，在所有三个自由贸易区中，ANZCER自由贸易区的形成导致与非成员国的贸易转移，而东盟自由贸易区的形成导致与非成员国的贸易增加。令人惊讶的是，NAFTA自由贸易区的形成对与非成员国的贸易没有重大影响，因为即使在实施之前，它们的贸易流量仍然很低。其次，结果表明，收入相似性的贸易促进效应已被确认为发展中国家而不是发达国家。收入相近的发展中国家成员国之间的贸易往来将更多。 Hanink的收入阈值概念可以部分解释这一结果，该理论认为，收入相似性效应仅适用于收入差异很小的发达国家。考虑到本研究中的国家样本不同，发达成员国之间的收入差异很大，可能是这些国家缺乏收入相似性效应的原因。

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