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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of marketing research >Bounded Rationality in Pricing Under State-Dependent Demand: Do Firms Look Ahead, and if So, How Far?
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Bounded Rationality in Pricing Under State-Dependent Demand: Do Firms Look Ahead, and if So, How Far?

机译：在国家依赖的需求下，定价具有无限的合理性：企业会向前看吗？如果是，那么会走多远？

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摘要

The authors propose an empirical procedure to investigate the pricing behavior of manufacturers and retailers in the presence of state-dependent demand. Rather than assuming that firms are perfectly forward looking and therefore solving accordingly for dynamic equilibriums that would arise in the presence of state dependence, the authors systematically evaluate whether boundedly rational firms indeed look ahead when they set prices and, if so, to what extent. They illustrate the procedure using household-level scanner-panel data on breakfast cereals and replicate the substantive results using data on ketchup. The authors find that (1) omission of state dependence in demand biases inference of firm behavior (i.e., tacit collusion is erroneously inferred when firms are competitive); (2) observed retail prices are consistent with a pricing model in which both manufacturers and retailers are forward looking (i.e., they incorporate the effects of their current prices on their future profits), but firms have short time horizons when setting prices (i.e., they look ahead by only one period, suggesting that firms are boundedly rational in their dynamic pricing behavior); and (3) even a myopic pricing model of firms that accounts for state dependence in demand is a reasonable approximation of the observed prices in thernmarket.
机译：作者提出了一种经验程序，以研究存在国家依存需求的制造商和零售商的定价行为。作者没有系统地假设企业是完全前瞻性的，因此没有相应地解决存在国家依赖性的情况下可能产生的动态均衡，而是系统地评估了有限理性的企业在设定价格时是否确实具有前瞻性，如果有的话，评估程度如何。他们使用早餐谷物的家庭级扫描仪面板数据说明了该程序，并使用番茄酱数据复制了实质性结果。作者发现：（1）需求中对国家依赖性的遗漏偏向了企业行为的推断（即，当企业具有竞争性时，默认默契合谋被错误地推论）； （2）观察到的零售价格与定价模型一致，在该模型中，制造商和零售商都具有前瞻性（即，他们将当前价格的影响纳入其未来利润中），但是公司在设定价格时具有较短的时间范围（即，他们只展望了一个​​时期，这表明企业在动态定价行为上的局限性是合理的）； （3）即使是解释需求对国家依赖的企业的近视定价模型，也可以合理地近似市场中观察到的价格。

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