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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Monetary Economics >The U.S. current account deficit and the expected share of world output
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The U.S. current account deficit and the expected share of world output

机译：美国经常账户赤字和世界产出的预期份额

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We investigate the possibility that the large current account deficits of the U.S. are the outcome of optimizing behavior. We develop a simple long-run world equilibrium model in which the current account is determined by the expected discounted present value of its future share of world GDP relative to its current share of world GDP. The model suggests that under some reasonable assumptions about future U.S. GDP growth relative to the rest of the advanced countries—more modest than the growth over the past 20 years—the current account deficit is near optimal levels. We then explore the implications for the real exchange rate. Under some plausible assumptions, the model implies little change in the real exchange rate over the adjustment path, though the conclusion is sensitive to assumptions about tastes and technology. Then we turn to empirical evidence. A test of current account sustainability suggests that the U.S. is not keeping on a long-run sustainable path. A direct test of our model finds that the dynamics of the U.S. current account—the increasing deficits over the past decade—are difficult to explain under a particular statistical model (Markov-switching) of expectations of future U.S. growth. But, if we use survey data on forecasted GDP growth in the G-7, our very simple model appears to explain the evolution of the U.S. current account remarkably well. We conclude that expectations of robust performance of the U.S. economy relative to the rest of the advanced countries is a contender—though not the only legitimate contender—for explaining the U.S. current account deficit.
机译：我们调查了美国经常账户巨额赤字是优化行为的结果的可能性。我们建立了一个简单的长期世界均衡模型，其中的经常项目由其未来在世界GDP中所占份额相对于其在世界GDP中所占份额的预期折现现值确定。该模型表明，在对美国未来相对于其他发达国家的GDP增长做出一些合理假设的情况下（比过去20年的增长温和得多），经常账户赤字接近最佳水平。然后，我们探索对实际汇率的影响。在某些合理的假设下，该模型暗示实际汇率在调整路径上几乎没有变化，尽管该结论对有关口味和技术的假设很敏感。然后我们转向经验证据。对经常帐可持续性的测试表明，美国没有走长期的可持续之路。对我们模型的直接检验发现，在对美国未来增长预期的特定统计模型（马尔可夫转换）下，很难解释美国经常账户的动态-过去十年来赤字的增加。但是，如果我们使用有关七国集团（G-7）预测GDP增长的调查数据，那么我们非常简单的模型似乎可以很好地解释美国经常账户的演变。我们得出的结论是，对美国经济相对于其他发达国家的强劲表现的期望是解释美国经常账户赤字的竞争者，尽管不是唯一的合法竞争者。

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