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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of money, credit and banking >The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the United States and the Euro Area
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The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the United States and the Euro Area

机译：模型不确定性下货币政策对失业动态的影响：来自美国和欧元区的证据

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摘要

This paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the United States. We employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models which differ in several dimensions to account for the uncertainty that the policymaker faces when setting the monetary policy and evaluating its effect on real economy. We find evidence of a high degree of dispersion across models in both policy rule parameters and impulse response functions. Moreover, monetary policy shocks have very similar recessionary effects on the two economies with a different role played by the participation rate in the transmission mechanism. Finally, we show that a policymaker who does not take model uncertainty into account and selects the results on the basis of a single model may come to misleading conclusions not only about the transmission mechanism, but also about the differences between the euro area and the United States, which are on average essentially small.
机译：本文探讨了对经济结构的不完全了解在围绕基于规则的货币政策对欧元区和美国失业动态的影响的不确定性中的作用。我们对多个维度不同的模型采用贝叶斯模型平均程序，以解决决策者在制定货币政策和评估其对实体经济的影响时面临的不确定性。我们发现在政策规则参数和冲激响应函数中模型之间高度分散的证据。此外，货币政策冲击对两个经济体具有非常相似的衰退影响，参与率在传导机制中的作用不同。最后，我们表明，不考虑模型不确定性并根据单一模型选择结果的政策制定者可能会得出误解性的结论，不仅关于传导机制，而且关于欧元区与美元之间的差异。状态，平均来说基本上很小。

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