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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of multiple-valued logic and soft computing >A Hybrid Knowledge-based Risk Prediction Method Using Fuzzy Logic and CBR for Avian Influenza Early Warning
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A Hybrid Knowledge-based Risk Prediction Method Using Fuzzy Logic and CBR for Avian Influenza Early Warning

机译：基于模糊知识和CBR的知识混合风险预测方法在禽流感预警中的应用

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摘要

The threat of highly pathogenic avian influenza persists, with the size of the epidemic growing worldwide. Various methods have been applied to measure and predict the threat. This paper outlines our research which develops a knowledge-based method that makes full use of previous knowledge to perform a comprehensive forecast of the risk of avian influenza and generate reliable warning signals for a specific region at a specific time. The method contains a risk estimation model and a knowledge-based prediction method using fuzzy logic and case-based reasoning (CBR) to generate timely early warnings to support decision makers to identify underlying vulnerabilities and implement relevant strategies. An example is presented that illustrates the capabilities and procedures of the proposed method in avian influenza early warning systems.
机译：高致病性禽流感的威胁持续存在，世界范围内流行病的规模不断扩大。已经应用了各种方法来测量和预测威胁。本文概述了我们的研究，该研究开发了一种基于知识的方法，该方法可以充分利用以前的知识来对禽流感风险进行全面预测，并在特定时间针对特定区域生成可靠的警告信号。该方法包含一个风险估计模型和一个基于知识的预测方法，该方法使用模糊逻辑和基于案例的推理（CBR）来生成及时的预警，以支持决策者识别潜在的漏洞并实施相关策略。给出一个例子，说明在禽流感预警系统中所提出的方法的功能和程序。

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  • 作者

    Jie Zhang; Jie Lu; Guangquan Zhang;

  • 作者单位

    Decision Systems & e-Service Intelligence Lab, Centre for Quantum Computation and Intelligent Systems, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology,University of Technology, Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, NSW 2007, Australia;

    Decision Systems & e-Service Intelligence Lab, Centre for Quantum Computation and Intelligent Systems, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology,University of Technology, Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, NSW 2007, Australia;

    Decision Systems & e-Service Intelligence Lab, Centre for Quantum Computation and Intelligent Systems, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology,University of Technology, Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, NSW 2007, Australia;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    case-based reasoning; knowledge-based systems; fuzzy logic; avian influenza; early warning systems; risk analysis;

    机译：基于案例的推理;基于知识的系统;模糊逻辑;禽流感预警系统;风险分析;

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