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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of offshore mechanics and arctic engineering >Probabilistic Seismic Collapse Analysis of Jacket Offshore Platforms
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Probabilistic Seismic Collapse Analysis of Jacket Offshore Platforms

机译：夹克海上平台的概率地震倒塌分析

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This paper analyses and evaluates the variability of seismic demand and capacity of a case study jacket offshore platform considering different sources of uncertainty. The aleatoric uncertainty due to variability of near-fault ground motions, as well as uncertain properties of the damping ratio, material elastic modulus, material yield strength, mass, and gravity load have been investigated. The main aim of this study is to pursue which sources of the uncertainty considerably affect the seismic response of the platform. To this end, the sensitivity analysis was conducted not only in the particular earthquake level, but also in all other ranges of intensity using incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) with a special focus on the seismic collapse fragility. In order to reduce the number of simulations, the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) scheme has been utilized as an efficient sampling procedure to combine the effects of modeling random variables. The collapse fragility curves are derived for each of the model realizations created with LHS technique. Thereafter, the summarized random fragility curve is compared with the deterministic mean parameter model fragility curve. It is found that the uncertainty in the mass and gravity load on the platform are the most influential variables, which can notably alter the IDA and collapse fragility curves. Furthermore, the random combination of the considered sources of uncertainty shifts the median of collapse fragility away from the mean parameter model collapse fragility. Overall, the effects of the uncertainties do not lead to notable changes in the summarized collapse fragility curve.
机译：本文分析和评估了地震需求的可变性和考虑不同不确定性来源的案例研究海上平台的能力。研究了由于近断层地面运动的变化而引起的不确定性，以及阻尼比，材料弹性模量，材料屈服强度，质量和重力载荷的不确定性。这项研究的主要目的是寻求不确定性的哪些来源对平台的地震响应产生重大影响。为此，不仅使用特定的地震级别，而且还使用增量动态分析（IDA）在所有其他强度范围内进行敏感性分析，并特别关注地震塌陷的脆弱性。为了减少仿真次数，拉丁超立方体采样（LHS）方案已被用作结合随机变量建模效果的有效采样程序。塌陷脆性曲线是针对使用LHS技术创建的每个模型实现而得出的。之后，将汇总的随机脆弱性曲线与确定性平均参数模型脆弱性曲线进行比较。结果发现，平台质量和重力载荷的不确定性是影响最大的变量，可以显着改变IDA和塌陷脆性曲线。此外，考虑的不确定性源的随机组合使坍塌脆性的中值从均值参数模型崩塌脆性偏离。总体而言，不确定性的影响不会导致汇总坍塌脆性曲线发生明显变化。

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