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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of operational oceanography >North Atlantic Ocean OSSE system: Evaluation of operational ocean observing system components and supplemental seasonal observations for potentially improving tropical cyclone prediction in coupled systems
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North Atlantic Ocean OSSE system: Evaluation of operational ocean observing system components and supplemental seasonal observations for potentially improving tropical cyclone prediction in coupled systems

机译：北大西洋OSSE系统：评估操作性海洋观测系统组成部分和补充季节性观测，以潜在改善耦合系统中的热带气旋预报

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摘要

Observing System Simulated Experiments (OSSEs) performed during the 2014 North Atlantic hurricane season quantify ocean observing system impacts with respect to improving ocean model initialisation in coupled tropical cyclone (TC) prediction systems. The suitability of the OSSE system forecast model (FM) with respect to the previously validated Nature Run is demonstrated first. Analyses are then performed to determine the calibration required to obtain credible OSSE impact assessments. Impacts on errors and biases in fields important to TC prediction are first quantified for three major components of the existing operational ocean observing system. Satellite altimetry provides the greatest positive impact, followed by Argo floats and sea surface temperature measurements from both satellite and in-situ systems. The OSSE system is then used to investigate observing system enhancements, specifically regional underwater glider deployments during the 2014 hurricane season. These deployments resulted in modest positive impacts on ocean analyses that were limited by (1) errors in the horizontal structure of the increment field imposed by individual gliders and (2) memory loss in the spreading of these corrections by nonlinear model dynamics. The high-resolution, three-dimensional representation of the truth available in OSSE systems allows these issues to be studied without high-density ocean observations.
机译：在2014年北大西洋飓风季节进行的观测系统模拟实验（OSSE）量化了海洋观测系统对改进耦合热带气旋（TC）预报系统中的海洋模型初始化的影响。首先说明OSSE系统预测模型（FM）相对于先前已验证的“自然运行”的适用性。然后进行分析以确定获得可靠的OSSE影响评估所需的校准。首先，针对现有海洋观测系统的三个主要组成部分，对对TC预报很重要的领域中的误差和偏差的影响进行了量化。卫星测高仪产生了最大的积极影响，其次是卫星和原位系统的Argo浮标和海面温度测量。然后，使用OSSE系统调查观测系统的增强功能，特别是2014年飓风季节期间区域水下滑翔机的部署。这些部署对海洋分析产生了适度的积极影响，但受到以下因素的限制：（1）由单个滑翔机施加的增量场的水平结构中的误差，以及（2）非线性模型动力学在这些校正的扩展中造成的内存损耗。 OSSE系统中可用真相的高分辨率，三维表示，使得这些问题无需高密度海洋观测即可进行研究。

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