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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Paleolimnology >Was there ice along the shore of the Sea of Galilee during the last 12,000?—Reply to a comment by Prange et al. (2007) and a comment by Friedman (2007)
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Was there ice along the shore of the Sea of Galilee during the last 12,000?—Reply to a comment by Prange et al. (2007) and a comment by Friedman (2007)

机译：在过去的12,000年中，加利利海沿岸有冰吗？—回复Prange等人的评论。 （2007）和弗里德曼（2007）的评论

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Prange et al. (2007) question our reconstruction of the Sea of Galilee (Lake Kinneret) paleoclimate and argue that a “careful” analysis of the paleoclimatic analysis leads to much smaller cooling events than we have considered. By and large, their “careful” analysis is based on correlating the paleotemperatures of the Lake with those of the northern Red-Sea that (geographically) is much closer to the Lake than the two Mediterranean cores that we used. Ironically, their argument contradicts Friedman’s (2007) statements (the second comment on our original paper), which are based on still-closer cores and support our larger cooling choices. This issue alone would be enough to dismiss the uniqueness of PAL argument but there is another issue with their work that we wish to comment on. In support of their own small cooling argument, PAL present winter correlation maps that indeed show a stronger correlation of the northern Red-Sea SST to the lake SST than the correlation of Mediterranean SST with the lake SST. This seemingly correct correlation argument of PAL is totally false (for both daily and millennial time scales) because it has no climatological basis. On the daily time scale, all the storms that reach the Lake originate in the Mediterranean Sea (to the west of the lake), not the Red-Sea (which lies 700 km south of the lake). Also, although the lake and the Red-Sea are only 700 kilometers apart, their climates are very different because they are subject to two totally different air masses. While the climate of the Red-Sea region is desert-like, the climate of the region surrounding the lake is a typical wet Mediterranean climate. Seasonal correlation maps (and even monthly maps) such as those presented by the authors filter out the storms that control the winter climate in the lake region because these storms occur on a daily scale. With this filtering, all that one is left with is the low frequency first baroclinic mode, which merely reflects the Rossby radius scale (measured from the lake). On the millennial time scale, cold events in the lake regions (from an earlier period) have been attributed to Bond cycles and Heinrich events both of which are global and not local processes. As such, they are probably forced by variability in the solar radiation rather than a local process implied by PAL. Overall, all that the PAL correlation shows for both daily and millennial time scales is that changes in the temperature in the Red-Sea occur at the same time as they do in the Lake. But this does not say anything about the dynamics in question and does not imply that it is better to use records from the Red-Sea (which does not lie within the path of the zonal winds reaching the Lake). Neglecting this issue (as proposed by PAL) distorts the physics and reminds us of the classical statistical example for the limitations involved in the interpretation of correlation—the incidence of lung cancer is strongly correlated with the incidence of carrying matches in ones pocket even though the matches do not cause the cancer and the cancer does not force one to carry matches.
机译：Prange等。 （2007年）质疑我们对加利利海（金奈雷特湖）的重建的古气候，并认为对古气候分析的“仔细”分析导致的降温事件比我们考虑的要小得多。总的来说，他们的“仔细”分析是基于将湖泊的地温与北部红海的地温（在地理上）比我们所使用的两个地中海核心距离更近而建立的。具有讽刺意味的是，他们的论点与弗里德曼（Friedman，2007）的声明（我们原始论文的第二条评论）相矛盾，该声明基于更紧密的核心，并支持我们更大的冷却选择。仅此一个问题就足以消除PAL论证的独特性，但是我们希望对他们的工作提出另一个问题。为了支持他们自己的小降温论证，PAL提出了冬季相关图，该图确实显示了北部红海SST与湖SST的相关性比地中海SST与湖SST的相关性更强。 PAL的这种看似正确的相关性论点（对于每日和千禧年的时间尺度）完全是错误的，因为它没有气候基础。在每天的时间尺度上，所有到达湖面的风暴都起源于地中海（湖面以西），而不是红海（湖面以南700公里）。同样，尽管湖泊和红海相距仅700公里，但它们的气候却大不相同，因为它们受到两个完全不同的空气质量的影响。尽管红海地区的气候像沙漠一样，但湖周围地区的气候却是典型的地中海湿润气候。作者提供的季节性相关图（甚至是月度图）可以过滤掉控制湖泊地区冬季气候的暴风雨，因为这些暴风雨每天都在发生。通过这种过滤，剩下的就是低频第一斜斜模式，它仅反映了罗斯比半径标度（从湖泊测得）。在千年时间尺度上，湖泊区域（较早时期）的寒冷事件被归因于邦德循环和海因里希事件，这两者都是全球性过程，而不是局部过程。因此，它们很可能是由于太阳辐射的变化而不是PAL暗示的局部过程所致。总体而言，PAL相关性在每日和千年时间尺度上显示的全部是，红海中的温度变化与湖泊中的温度变化同时发生。但这并没有说明有关的动力学问题，也并不意味着最好使用红海的记录（红海的记录不位于到达湖的纬向风的路径之内）。忽略这个问题（由PAL提出）扭曲了物理学，使我们想起了经典的统计例子，它说明了相关性的解释所受的局限性—即使发生了肺癌，肺癌的发生率也与携带火柴的发生率密切相关。火柴不会引起癌症，癌症也不会迫使人们携带火柴。

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