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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Physical Oceanography >Predictability of Mesoscale Variability in the East Australian Current Given Strong-Constraint Data Assimilation
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Predictability of Mesoscale Variability in the East Australian Current Given Strong-Constraint Data Assimilation

机译：在强约束数据同化条件下东澳大利亚海流中尺度变化的可预测性

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摘要

One of the many applications of data assimilation is the estimation of adequate initial conditions for model forecasts. In this work, the authors evaluate to what extent the incremental, strong-constraint, four-dimensional variational data assimilation (IS4DVAR) can improve prediction of mesoscale variability in the East Australian Current (EAC) using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The observations considered in the assimilation experiments are daily composites of satellite sea surface temperature (SST), 7-day average reanalysis of satellite altimeter sea level anomalies, and subsurface temperature profiles from high-resolution expendable bathythermograph (XBT). Considering all available observations for years 2001 and 2002, ROMS forecast initial conditions are generated every week by assimilating the available observations from the 7 days prior to the forecast initial time. It is shown that assimilation of surface information only [SST and sea surface height (SSH)] results in poor estimates of the true subsurface ocean state (as depicted by the XBTs) and therefore poor forecast skill of subsurface conditions. Including the XBTs in the assimilation experiments improves the ocean state estimation in the vicinity of the XBT transects. By introducing subsurface pseudo-observations (which are called synthetic CTD) based on an empirical relationship between satellite surface observations and subsurface variability, the authors find a significant improvement in ocean state estimates that leads to skillful forecasts for up to 2 weeks in the domain considered.
机译：数据同化的许多应用之一是对模型预测的适当初始条件进行估算。在这项工作中，作者评估了使用区域海洋建模系统（ROMS）在一定程度上对增量，强约束的多维变分数据同化（IS4DVAR）可以改善东澳大利亚洋流（EAC）中尺度变率的预测。在同化实验中考虑的观测结果是卫星海面温度（SST）的每日合成，卫星高度计海平面异常的7天平均重新分析以及高分辨率消耗性水温仪（XBT）的地下温度剖面。考虑到2001年和2002年的所有可用观测值，ROMS每周都会通过吸收来自预测初始时间之前7天的可用观测值来生成预测初始条件。结果表明，仅表层信息[SST和海面高度（SSH）]的同化导致对真实地下海洋状态的估算不佳（如XBT所描绘），因此对地下状况的预测能力较差。在同化实验中包括XBT可以改善XBT样面附近的海洋状态估计。通过基于卫星地面观测与地下变化之间的经验关系引入地下伪观测（称为合成CTD），作者发现海洋状态估计值有了显着改善，从而可以在考虑的范围内进行长达2周的熟练预测。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of Physical Oceanography》 |2012年第9期|p.1402-1420|共19页
  • 作者

    Javier Zavala-Garay; J. L. Wilkin; H. G. Arango;

  • 作者单位

    Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, New Jersey;

    Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, New Jersey;

    Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, New Jersey;

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