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Population Aging and Economic Development: Anxieties and Policy Responses

机译:人口老龄化与经济发展:焦虑与政策对策

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Population aging worries many. Will population aging negatively affect economic output and lead to deflation? Can countries afford to cater for older populations? Can they prevent old-age poverty? Can they pay adequate pensions? Can they address the challenge of population aging by postponing the retirement age? Should they seek to counteract population aging through accelerated immigration and/ or should they focus on maintaining fertility rates above replacement levels? Although some answers to these questions are context-specific, this paper argues that the threat of population aging is overstated. It is hyped by media and too often based on partial analysis. A macroeconomic analysis provides a more adequate and less threatening picture of population aging than the household-focused analysis that underlies most studies on this subject matter. The developed economies that already have a large share of older persons are well positioned to shoulder the economic implications of further population aging, and rapidly developing economies, which see an accelerated rate of population aging, are too. Many countries have the economic conditions to address population aging, but many lack the necessary resolve to implement the required policies. Popular policy responses to population aging are building up to a major wave of income redistribution, following the globalization of finance and the current responses to the global economic crisis.
机译:人口老龄化令许多人担忧。人口老龄化会否对经济产出产生负面影响并导致通缩?国家能负担得起老年人口吗?他们可以预防老年贫困吗?他们可以支付足够的养老金吗?他们能否通过推迟退休年龄来应对人口老龄化的挑战?他们应该通过加速移民来抵制人口老龄化,还是应该集中精力将生育率保持在替代水平之上?尽管对这些问题的某些回答是针对特定情况的,但本文认为人口老龄化的威胁被夸大了。它被媒体大肆宣传,并且经常基于部分分析。宏观经济分析提供的人口老龄化状况比以家庭为重点的分析为基础,该分析是大多数有关该主题的研究的基础,而该分析提供了更充分,更少威胁的信息。已经有大量老年人的发达经济体处于有利地位,可以承受人口进一步老龄化的经济影响,人口迅​​速增长的迅速发展的经济体也是如此。许多国家都有解决人口老龄化的经济条件,但许多国家缺乏实施必要政策的必要决心。在金融全球化和当前对全球经济危机的应对之后,针对人口老龄化的民众政策应对措施正在构成一股主要的收入再分配浪潮。

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