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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Population Ageing >How Long Do We Expect to Live? A Review of the Evidence
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How Long Do We Expect to Live? A Review of the Evidence

机译：我们期望活多久？证据审查

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How long people expect to live sets an important context for longevity risk in retirement planning and may contribute to the acceptability of policies to raise pension age. However, there have been few studies representative of a national population on subjective longevity. This paper reviews the available evidence. It finds that despite some studies reporting that subjective longevity is close to average measures in population life tables the prevailing tendency is to underestimate lifespans. Men generally reflect that they have lower actual longevity than women on average, but men are more optimistic, so that women are more likely to underestimate their likely longevity. People may take account of some mortality risk factors in estimating their own longevity, but appear not to understand the true extent of risk. There is little data on how people think about longevity or why they choose a particular estimate of their own likely lifespan. Thus, international evidence suggests potential for longevity risk in individual retirement planning and raises significant questions about the policy implications which can only become more acute in ageing populations.
机译：人们期望寿命的长短为退休计划中的长寿风险设置了重要的背景，并可能有助于提高退休金年龄的政策的可接受性。但是，很少有代表全国人口的关于主观寿命的研究。本文回顾了现有证据。它发现，尽管一些研究报告说主观寿命接近人口寿命表中的平均量度，但普遍的趋势是低估了寿命。一般而言，男性反映出他们的实际寿命比女性平均要低，但是男性则比较乐观，因此女性更有可能低估其可能的寿命。人们在估计自己的寿命时可能会考虑一些死亡风险因素，但似乎并不了解真正的风险程度。关于人们如何看待寿命或为什么选择对自己可能的寿命的特定估计的数据很少。因此，国际证据表明在个人退休计划中存在长寿风险的可能性，并提出了对政策影响的重大疑问，这种影响只会在人口老龄化中变得更加严重。

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