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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Population Ageing >Life Expectancy in Developed Countries is Higher Than Conventionally Estimated. Implications from Improved Measurement of Human Longevity
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Life Expectancy in Developed Countries is Higher Than Conventionally Estimated. Implications from Improved Measurement of Human Longevity

机译：发达国家的预期寿命比常规估计的要高。改善人类寿命测量的意义

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摘要

Both the centuries-long tradition of conventional lifespan indicators and the more recent criticism to them ignore the true exposures of individuals to prevailing mortality levels. These exposures form a genuine part of a more comprehensive picture of the prevailing mortality conditions. In low-mortality countries, our estimated duration of human life exceeds the conventional estimates by 15 years. Our theory implies that mortality dynamics are characterised by a considerable inertia. This is used to develop new methods of forecasting, leading to a more optimistic outlook for future mortality.
机译：传统寿命指标已有数百年的悠久历史，而最近对它们的批评也都忽略了个人对主要死亡率的真实暴露。这些暴露构成了对当前死亡率状况更全面了解的真实部分。在低死亡率国家，我们的估计寿命超过了传统估计的15年。我们的理论表明，死亡率动态具有相当大的惯性特征。这将用于开发新的预测方法，从而使人们对未来的死亡率更加乐观。

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