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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of population economics >Do fertility transitions influence infant mortality declines? Evidence from early modern Germany
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Do fertility transitions influence infant mortality declines? Evidence from early modern Germany

机译：生育力转变是否会影响婴儿死亡率的下降？来自早期现代德国的证据

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摘要

The timing and sequencing of fertility transitions and early-life mortality declines in historical Western societies indicate that reductions in sibship (number of siblings) may have contributed to improvements in infant health. Surprisingly, however, this demographic relationship has received little attention in empirical research. We outline the difficulties associated with establishing the effect of sibship on infant mortality and discuss the inherent bias associated with conventional empirical approaches. We offer a solution that permits an empirical test of this relationship while accounting for reverse causality and potential omitted variable bias. Our approach is illustrated by evaluating the causal impact of family size on infant mortality using genealogical data from 13 German parishes spanning the sixteenth, seventeenth, eighteenth, and nineteenth centuries. Overall, our findings do not support the hypothesis that declining fertility led to increased infant survival probabilities in historical populations.
机译：在西方历史悠久的社会中，生育率转换的时间和顺序以及早年死亡率的下降表明，同胞关系的减少（兄弟姐妹的数量）可能有助于改善婴儿健康。但是，令人惊讶的是，这种人口关系在实证研究中很少受到关注。我们概述了与建立同胞关系对婴儿死亡率的影响有关的困难，并讨论了与传统经验方法有关的内在偏差。我们提供了一种解决方案，可以对该关系进行实证检验，同时考虑反向因果关系和潜在的遗漏变量偏差。我们的方法通过使用16个，17个，18个和19个世纪的13个德国教区的家谱数据评估家庭规模对婴儿死亡率的因果影响来说明。总体而言，我们的发现不支持这样的假设，即生育力下降导致历史人群婴儿存活率增加。

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