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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of product innovation management >Are Virtual Markets Efficient Predictors of New Product Success? The Case of the Hollywood Stock Exchange
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Are Virtual Markets Efficient Predictors of New Product Success? The Case of the Hollywood Stock Exchange

机译：虚拟市场是新产品成功的有效预测因素吗？好莱坞证券交易所案

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摘要

Defining effective methods for determining consumer preferences for products prior to their launch has been a mainstay of marketing and management literature for decades. Virtual Stock Markets (VSMs) is an emerging method in new product forecasting that has been shown to produce reliable new product sales estimates by combining individual preferences via market-based aggregation mechanisms. Due to the emerging popularity of VSMs among practitioners, this cross-disciplinary study (combining insights from finance, marketing, and new product development fields) uses the example of the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) and examines its predictive validity and potential systematic biases in its predictions to help think about the general applicability of these forecasting methods to other product areas, or how forecasts in other product areas may need to be modified to be more precise. This study finds evidence of overestimating the sales potential associated with products on the low end of the revenue expectation spectrum, which could be linked to the fact that in artificial exchanges, where no money changes hands, people tend to gamble hoping to make excessive returns. However, this explanation is weakened by the introduction of additional variables linked to the negative influence of information search costs (harder to utilize information is not fully reflected in the stock prices) and over-utilization of highly visible/conspicuous information. Practical implications for managers considering using VSMs for new product forecasting in creative gestalt-like settings are discussed.
机译：几十年来，定义有效的方法来确定产品上市之前消费者的喜好一直是营销和管理文献的主要内容。虚拟股票市场（VSM）是新产品预测中的一种新兴方法，已显示可以通过基于市场的汇总机制结合个人偏好来产生可靠的新产品销售估计。由于VSM在从业者中越来越流行，因此该跨学科研究（结合了来自金融，营销和新产品开发领域的见解）以好莱坞证券交易所（HSX）为例，并检验了其在市场上的预测有效性和潜在的系统偏见。它的预测有助于考虑这些预测方法在其他产品领域中的普遍适用性，或者可能需要修改其他产品领域中的预测以使其更加精确。这项研究发现有证据表明，在收入预期范围的低端高估了与产品相关的销售潜力，这可能与以下事实有关：在人工交易中，没有钱易手，人们倾向于赌博，希望获得超额收益。但是，由于引入了与信息搜索成本的负面影响相关的其他变量（难以利用的信息未完全反映在股票价格中）以及过度使用高度可见/引人注目的信息，从而削弱了这种解释。讨论了对于考虑在创造性的格式像环境中使用VSM进行新产品预测的管理人员的实际含义。

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