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Lagged Learning and the Response to Equilibrium Shock: The Global Financial Crisis and IMF Surveillance

机译：滞后学习与对均衡冲击的反应：全球金融危机和IMF监督

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The paper investigates the changes to the Fund's bilateral surveillance policy in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2007-09 asking about the factors that caused the quick and deep shift to a systemic surveillance approach. In answering this question, the paper argues that the causes of the quick and deep transformation of IMF surveillance lie in the preceding two decades of incremental accumulation of knowledge and small transformations in policy instruments and organizational practices. In identifying the causes of present policy choices in the lessons drawn from past experience, the paper provides an example of lagged learning because the lessons drawn from the 1990s emerging market crises exerted their full impact only as a response to the global financial crisis. These findings therefore contribute to the literature that aims at showing the importance of temporality and process sequencing to explain policy change.
机译：本文调查了2007-09年全球金融危机之后国际货币基金组织（IMF）的双边监视政策的变化，询问了导致迅速而深刻地转向系统监视方法的因素。在回答这个问题时，本文认为，IMF监督快速而深刻转变的原因在于前二十年知识的累积积累以及政策工具和组织实践的微小转变。在从过去的经验教训中找出当前政策选择的原因时，本文提供了一个滞后学习的例子，因为从1990年代新兴市场危机中汲取的教训仅对全球金融危机做出了充分的影响。因此，这些发现为旨在显示时间性和过程顺序对解释政策变化的重要性的文献做出了贡献。

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