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首页> 外文期刊>The journal of risk and insurance >Risk Misperceptions and Selection in Insurance Markets: An Application to Demand for Cancer Insurance
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Risk Misperceptions and Selection in Insurance Markets: An Application to Demand for Cancer Insurance

机译：保险市场的风险误解与选择：对癌症保险需求的应用

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摘要

We test for the influence of optimism on selection in a hypothetical cancer-insurance market using a survey of 474 subjects. We elicit perceptions of baseline cancer risk and control efficacy and combine these with subject-specific cancer risks predicted by the Harvard Cancer Risk Index to develop measures of baseline and control optimism. Following Fang, Keane, and Silverman (), we hypothesize that a variable may lead to advantageous selection if it is positively correlated with both prevention effort and demand for insurance. We find evidence of selection from both baseline and control optimism, but little evidence of selection from cognitive ability and risk aversion. We then estimate a model that allows us to classify subjects according to their excess risk-reducing effort and excess insurance uptake that occurs solely because of baseline and control optimism. We find subjects who overinsure relative to a subject with accurate risk beliefs are likely to have lower expected treatment costs, ceteris paribus. This indicates that on net, baseline and control optimism leads to advantageous selection in our sample.
机译：我们通过对474名受试者的调查，测试了乐观度对假设的癌症保险市场中选择的影响。我们引起人们对基线癌症风险和控制功效的认识，并将其与哈佛癌症风险指数预测的受试者特异性癌症风险相结合，以制定基线和控制乐观度的量度。根据Fang，Keane和Silverman（），我们假设如果变量与预防工作和保险需求均呈正相关，则该变量可能会导致有利的选择。我们从基线和控制乐观中都找到了选择的证据，但是从认知能力和风险厌恶中选择的证据却很少。然后，我们估计一个模型，该模型使我们能够根据仅由于基线和控制乐观而产生的过分降低风险的努力和过分购买保险来对受试者进行分类。我们发现相对于具有准确风险信念的受试者而言，投保过度的受试者可能具有较低的预期治疗成本，即“黄道鸡”。这表明，从总体上看，基线和对照的乐观态度导致我们样本中的有利选择。

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  • 来源
    《The journal of risk and insurance》 |2018年第3期|749-785|共37页
  • 作者

    Riddel Mary; Hales David;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Nevada, Dept Econ, Lee Business Sch, Econ, 4505 S Maryland PKWY,Box 6005, Las Vegas, NV 89154 USA;

    Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Econ, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA;

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