A BURNING QUESTION: DOES ARSON INCREASE WHEN LOCAL HOUSE PRICES DECLINE?

Eriksen Michael D.; Carson James M.

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A BURNING QUESTION: DOES ARSON INCREASE WHEN LOCAL HOUSE PRICES DECLINE?

机译：一个令人生厌的问题：当地房屋价格下降时，纵火会增加吗？

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We construct panel data on house prices and the determined cause of 4.8 million individual fires in the United States between 1986 and 2010 to test whether decreases in local housing market prices coincided with increases in arson. Since some insured homeowners may attempt to disguise the actual cause of fire as accidental, we also examine how decreases in local house prices are associated with changes in the total number of fires and the probability of determined causes of accidental fires. For the sample period, our results suggest that declines in local house prices coincided with increases in arson, the total number of fires, and the probability that fires were determined to occur due to arson and misuse. We provide further support for the existence of such an effect with empirical evidence that the relation between declines in house prices and arson is stronger in states that allow mortgage lender recourse.

机译：我们构建了有关房价的面板数据，并确定了1986年至2010年美国480万起个人起火的原因，以检验当地住房市场价格的下降是否与放火的发生相吻合。由于一些有保险的房主可能试图掩盖火灾的实际起因是偶然的，因此，我们还研究了当地房价的下跌如何与火灾总数的变化以及确定的偶然起火的可能性相关联。在抽样期间，我们的结果表明，当地房价的下降与放火，火灾总数以及确定由于放火和滥用引起火灾的可能性是一致的。我们通过经验证据为这种影响的存在提供了进一步的支持，即在允许抵押贷款人追索权的州，房价下跌和纵火之间的关系更强。

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《The journal of risk and insurance》 |2017年第1期|7-34|共28页
作者
Eriksen Michael D.; Carson James M.;
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Texas Tech Univ, Rawls Coll Business, Finance, Lubbock, TX 79409 USA;

Univ Georgia, Terry Coll Business, Dept Insurance Legal Studies & Real Estate, Insurance, Athens, GA 30602 USA;

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A BURNING QUESTION: DOES ARSON INCREASE WHEN LOCAL HOUSE PRICES DECLINE?

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