Mortality Leads and Lags

Milidonis Andreas; Efthymiou Maria

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Mortality Leads and Lags

机译：死亡率领先与落后

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Mortality risk varies geographically, especially in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, where economic development is quite diverse. We present a newly collected data set on aggregate population mortality from 11 countries in APAC, which we rank based on their economic development. Using lead-lag analysis, we identify short-term predictability in mortality risk across countries. Mortality improvements seem to appear faster in more developed than less developed countries. Such predictability is useful for longevity risk financing and in producing cross-country mortality indices. We propose ways in which our results can benefit institutions manage their exposure in APAC mortality and longevity risk.

机译：死亡率风险在地域上有所不同，尤其是在亚太地区（APAC）地区，那里的经济发展差异很大。我们提供了一个新收集的有关亚太地区11个国家的总人口死亡率的数据集，我们根据其经济发展排名。使用超前滞后分析，我们确定了各国死亡率风险的短期可预测性。较不发达国家，似乎在较发达的国家看来死亡率提高更快。这种可预测性对于寿命风险融资和产生跨国死亡率指标很有用。我们提出了一些方法，使我们的结果可以使机构受益，以管理其在亚太地区死亡率和寿命风险中的暴露。

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《The journal of risk and insurance》 |2017年第s1期|495-514|共20页
作者
Milidonis Andreas; Efthymiou Maria;
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Univ Cyprus, Sch Econ & Management, Dept Accounting & Finance, POB 20537, CY-1678 Nicosia, Cyprus|Nanyang Technol Univ, Nanyang Business Sch, Insurance Risk & Finance Res Ctr, Singapore, Singapore;

Univ Cyprus, Sch Econ & Management, Dept Accounting & Finance, POB 20537, CY-1678 Nicosia, Cyprus;

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Mortality Leads and Lags

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