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EVALUATING THE EXPECTED WELFARE GAIN FROM INSURANCE

机译：从保险中评估预期的福利收益

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摘要

Economic theory tells us how to evaluate the expected welfare gain from insurance products on offer to individuals. If we know the risk preferences of the individual, and subjective beliefs about loss contingencies and likelihood of payout, there is a certainty equivalent of the risky insurance policy that can be compared to the certain insurance premium. This simple logic extends to nonstandard models of risk preferences, such as those in which individuals exhibit optimism or pessimism about loss contingencies in their evaluation of the risky insurance policy. We illustrate the application of these basic ideas about the welfare evaluation of insurance policies in a controlled laboratory experiment. We estimate the risk preferences of individuals from one task, and separately present the individual with a number of insurance policies in which loss contingencies are objective. We then estimate the expected consumer surplus gained or foregone from observed take-up decisions. There is striking evidence of foregone expected consumer surplus from incorrect take-up decisions. Indeed, the metric of take-up itself, widely used in welfare evaluations of insurance products, provides a qualitatively incorrect guide to the expected welfare effects of insurance.
机译：经济理论告诉我们如何评估提供给个人的保险产品的预期福利收益。如果我们知道个人的风险偏好，以及关于意外损失和支付可能性的主观信念，那么就可以将风险保险单的确定性等同于一定的保险费。这种简单的逻辑扩展到非标准的风险偏好模型，例如，在个人对风险保险单的评估中，他们对损失的意外事件表现出乐观或悲观的模型。我们说明了有关保险政策的福利评估的这些基本思想在受控实验室实验中的应用。我们通过一项任务估计个人的风险偏好，并分别为个人提供一些以损失突发事件为目标的保险单。然后，我们估计从观察到的使用决策中获得或放弃的预期消费者剩余。有惊人的证据表明，错误的使用决策会导致预期的消费者剩余。的确，在保险产品的福利评估中广泛使用的接纳量度本身提供了对保险的预期福利影响的定性错误指导。

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  • 来源
    《The journal of risk and insurance》 |2016年第1期|91-120|共30页
  • 作者

    Harrison Glenn W.; Jia Min Ng;

  • 作者单位

    Georgia State Univ, Robinson Coll Business, Dept Risk Management & Insurance, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA|Georgia State Univ, Robinson Coll Business, Ctr Econ Anal Risk, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA;

    Georgia State Univ, Robinson Coll Business, Dept Risk Management & Insurance, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA|Univ Cape Town, Sch Econ, ZA-7700 Rondebosch, South Africa|IZA Inst Study Labor, Bonn, Germany;

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