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Market Expectations Following Catastrophes: An Examination of Insurance Broker Returns

机译：灾难后的市场预期：对保险经纪人回报的检验

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摘要

We investigate the effect major catastrophes are expected to have on equilibrium price and quantity in the insurance market. In particular, we examine whether investors expect total industry revenue to increase following a disaster's shock to insurers' financial capital. Rather than examine insurers directly, we study insurance brokers, who earn commissions on premium revenue but do not pay losses following a disaster. We conduct an event study on insurance broker stock returns surrounding the 43 largest insured-loss catastrophes since 1970. We find that brokers earn positive abnormal returns on the day of the event, and that these returns are sustained following the top 20 largest events. We then investigate factors influencing these returns and find that returns are positively related to the size of the loss and negatively related to existing insurer capital. From this, we conclude that catastrophe shocks are expected to increase net industry revenue, benefiting brokers most immediately. This investor response is consistent with economic theories of a negative relationship between capital and insurance prices and price-inelastic demand for commercial insurance.
机译：我们调查了预计重大灾难对保险市场均衡价格和数量的影响。尤其是，我们检查了投资者是否期望在灾难对保险公司的金融资本造成冲击后，行业总收入会增加。我们不是直接检查保险公司，而是研究保险经纪人，他们从保费收入中获得佣金，但在灾难发生后不支付损失。我们围绕1970年以来43种最大的保险损失灾难进行了保险经纪人股票收益的事件研究。我们发现经纪人在事件当日获得正的异常收益，并且这些收益在前20大事件之后仍保持不变。然后，我们调查影响这些收益的因素，发现收益与损失的大小正相关，而与现有保险公司资本负相关。由此得出的结论是，灾难性的冲击有望增加净行业收入，使经纪人最直接受益。投资者的这种反应与经济理论一致，即资本与保险价格之间的负相关关系以及对商业保险的价格弹性需求之间的负相关关系。

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  • 来源
    《The journal of risk and insurance》 |2016年第4期|849-876|共28页
  • 作者

    Ragin Marc A.; Halek Martin;

  • 作者单位

    Temple Univ, Sch Business, Dept Risk Insurance & Healthcare Management, Philadelphia, PA 19122 USA;

    Univ Wisconsin, Wisconsin Sch Business, Dept Actuarial Sci Risk Management & Insurance, Madison, WI 53706 USA;

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