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Nonlinear Cointegration Relationships Between Non-Life Insurance Premiums and Financial Markets

机译:非寿险保费与金融市场之间的非线性协整关系

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摘要

The aim of this article is to study the adjustment dynamics of the non-life insurance premium (NLIP) and test its dependence to the financial markets in five countries (Canada, France, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States). First, we justify the linkage between the insurance and the financial markets by the underwriting cycle theory and financial models of insurance pricing. Second, we examine the relationship between the NLIP, the interest rate, and the stock price using the recent developments of nonlinear econometrics. We use threshold cointegration models: the switching transition error correction models (STECM). We show that STECM perform better than a linear error correction model (LECM) to reproduce the NLIP dynamics. Our empirical results show that the adjustment of the NLIP in France, Japan, and the United States is rather discontinuous, asymmetrical, and nonlinear. Moreover, we suggest a strong evidence of significant linkages between insurance and financial markets, show two regimes for the NLIP, and find that the NLIP adjustment toward equilibrium is time varying with a convergence speed that varies according to the insurance disequilibrium size.
机译:本文旨在研究非寿险保费(NLIP)的调整动态,并测试其对五个国家(加拿大,法国,日本,英国和美国)金融市场的依赖性。首先,我们通过承保周期理论和保险定价金融模型来证明保险与金融市场之间的联系是正确的。其次,我们使用非线性计量经济学的最新发展来检验NLIP,利率和股票价格之间的关系。我们使用阈值协整模型:开关转换误差校正模型(STECM)。我们表明,STECM的性能优于线性误差校正模型(LECM),以重现NLIP动态。我们的经验结果表明,法国,日本和美国对NLIP的调整相当不连续,不对称且是非线性的。此外,我们建议有力的证据表明保险和金融市场之间存在重要联系,显示了NLIP的两种制度,并发现NLIP向均衡的调整是随时间变化的,收敛速度根据保险不平衡规模而变化。

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  • 来源
    《The journal of risk and insurance》 |2009年第3期|753-783|共31页
  • 作者单位

    Amiens School of Management and EconomiX-University Paris Ouest Nanterre La Defense;

    EconomiX-University Paris Ouest Nanterre La Defense;

    EconomiX-University Paris Ouest Nanterre La Defense;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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