Consideration of human actions in combination with the probabilistic dynamics method Monte Carlo dynamic event tree

M Kloos; J Peschke

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Consideration of human actions in combination with the probabilistic dynamics method Monte Carlo dynamic event tree

机译：结合概率动力学方法蒙特卡洛动态事件树考虑人类行为

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The various accident sequences to be considered in the framework of a probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) for a nuclear power plant derive from interactions between the physical process, technical system functions, operator performance and stochastic influences along the time axis. Probabilistic dynamics methods have been developed to adequately account for these interactions. They can potentially cover the spectrum of event sequences which may actually evolve and achieve a realistic probabilistic safety assessment. The probabilistic dynamics method MCDET is a combination of Monte Carlo simulation and the discrete dynamic event tree (DDET) method. It was implemented as a module which can operate in tandem with any deterministic code simulating the system and process dynamics. MCDET was supplemented by a so-called Crew-Module which permits to simulate the dynamics of human actions depending on but also acting on the system and process dynamics as modelled in the deterministic code and on stochastic influences as modelled in MCDET. This paper presents the Crew-Module and gives an overview of the results which may be obtained from its combination with MCDET and a deterministic dynamics code.

机译：在核电厂的概率安全分析（PSA）框架中要考虑的各种事故序列，是沿着时间轴的物理过程，技术系统功能，运营商绩效和随机影响之间的相互作用而得出的。已经开发了概率动力学方法来充分考虑这些相互作用。它们可以潜在地覆盖事件序列的范围，这些事件序列实际上可以演变并实现切合实际的概率安全性评估。概率动力学方法MCDET是蒙特卡罗模拟和离散动态事件树（DDET）方法的结合。它被实现为一个模块，可以与模拟系统和过程动态的任何确定性代码一起运行。 MCDET由所谓的Crew-Module补充，该模块允许根据确定性代码中建模的系统和过程动力学以及根据MCDET中建模的随机影响来模拟但也取决于系统和过程动力学的人类行为的动力学。本文介绍了Crew-Module，并概述了可通过将其与MCDET和确定性动力学代码结合而获得的结果。

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《Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability》 |2008年第3期|p.303-313|共11页
作者
M Kloos; J Peschke;
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作者单位

Gesellschaft für Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit GmbH, Forschungsinstitute, Munich, Germany;

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正文语种 eng
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关键词
dynamic probabilistic safety analysis; dynamic human reliability analysis;

机译：动态概率安全性分析;动态人类可靠性分析;

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1. Consideration of human actions in combination with the probabilistic dynamics method Monte Carlo dynamic event tree [J] . M. Kloos, J. Peschke Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O. Journal of Risk and Reliability . 2008,第o3期

机译：结合概率动力学方法蒙特卡洛动态事件树考虑人类行为
2. MCDET: A probabilistic dynamics method combining Monte Carlo simulation with the discrete dynamic event tree approach [J] . Kloos M, Peschke J Nuclear science and engineering . 2006,第2期

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Consideration of human actions in combination with the probabilistic dynamics method Monte Carlo dynamic event tree

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