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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability >Safety and inspection planning of older installations
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Safety and inspection planning of older installations

机译：旧设备的安全和检查计划

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A basic assumption often made in risk- and reliability-based inspection planning is that a Bayesian approach can be used. This implies that probabilities of failure can be updated in a consistent way when new information (from inspections and repairs) becomes available. The Bayesian approach and a no-crack detection assumption imply that the inspection time intervals usually become longer and longer with time. For ageing platforms several small cracks should be expected to be observed according to the bath-tub curve development often assumed – implying an increased risk for crack initiation (and coalescence of small cracks) and increased crack growth. This should imply shorter inspection time intervals for ageing structures. Different approaches for updating inspection plans for older installations are proposed. The most promising method consists of increasing the rate of crack initiations at the end of the expected lifetime – corresponding to a bath-tub hazard rate effect. The approach illustrated is for welded steel details in platforms. Systems effects are considered, including the use of dependence between inspection and failure events in different components for inspection planning.
机译：在基于风险和可靠性的检查计划中经常做出的基本假设是，可以使用贝叶斯方法。这意味着当有新信息（来自检查和维修）可用时，可以以一致的方式更新故障概率。贝叶斯方法和无裂纹检测假设意味着检查时间间隔通常会随着时间而变得越来越长。对于老化的平台，应根据经常假定的浴盆曲线的发展来预期会观察到几个小裂纹，这意味着增加了裂纹萌生（小裂纹合并）和裂纹扩展的风险。这应意味着缩短老化结构的检查时间间隔。提出了更新旧设备检查计划的不同方法。最有前途的方法是在预期寿命结束时提高裂纹萌生率，这与浴缸的危险率效应相对应。所示方法适用于平台中的焊接钢零件。考虑了系统影响，包括在检查计划的不同组件中使用检查和故障事件之间的依赖关系。

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