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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability >System reliability and safety assessment using non-parametric flowgraph models
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System reliability and safety assessment using non-parametric flowgraph models

机译：使用非参数流程图模型进行系统可靠性和安全性评估

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摘要

Multi-state Markov models are widely used for prediction in reliability, safety, and risk analysis. Systems typically pass through different states between correct, reliable operation and failure, as a result of external events or internal ageing, and Markov models provide an effective compromise between realism and mathematical tractability. Statistical flowgraphs analyse these models using transforms of the transition time distributions between states, which are combined and inverted to obtain quantities of interest for the entire model. This paper presents an approach to flowgraphs using empirical transforms based on historical or testing data, with no assumption of parametric probability models for transition times. The non-parametric method is illustrated with an application to predicting cumulative earthquake damage to structures.
机译：多状态马尔可夫模型已广泛用于可靠性，安全性和风险分析的预测。由于外部事件或内部老化，系统通常会在正确，可靠的操作和故障之间经历不同的状态，而马尔可夫模型在现实性和数学易处理性之间提供了有效的折衷方案。统计流程图使用状态之间的过渡时间分布的变换来分析这些模型，将这些模型组合和倒置以获得整个模型感兴趣的数量。本文提出了一种基于历史数据或测试数据的使用经验变换的流图方法，无需假设过渡时间的参数概率模型。举例说明了非参数方法在预测建筑物累积地震破坏中的应用。

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