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The potential power of experience in communications of expert consensus levels

机译：专家共识级别的交流中经验的潜在力量

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Understanding the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change has been dubbed a gateway belief' to engaging people in sustainable behaviour. We consider the question of how the impact of a consensus communication can be maximised. Firstly, the credibility of the communicator should be maximised. One way of achieving this is to present the opinions of a sample of scientists directly to individuals. The decision-making literature suggests that such a technique will confer an additional advantage over standard descriptions of consensus (e.g. 97% of scientists agree'). In decision-making research, low probabilities tend to be overweighted when probabilities are described, but underweighted when probability information is experienced. Consequently, statements of high consensus may lead to an overweighting of the dissensus, a phenomenon that may be reversed were the consensus to be experienced.' We obtain some positive support for our proposal that consensus is best experienced' in one of two experiments. We suggest that the lack of stronger positive support could relate to ceiling effects for the topics studied and propose that investigation of effective methods for experiencing' the consensus is a fruitful area for future research.
机译：理解关于人为气候变化的科学共识被称为一种使人们参与可持续行为的门户信念。我们考虑以下问题：如何才能最大程度地达成共识性交流的影响。首先，应最大限度地提高传播者的信誉。实现这一目标的一种方法是直接向个人展示科学家样本的观点。决策文献表明，这种技术相对于共识的标准描述（例如97％的科学家同意）会带来额外的优势。在决策研究中，当描述概率时，低概率往往会被加权过大，但是当体验到概率信息时，低概率就会被加权过。因此，达成高度共识的声明可能会导致对异议的加重，如果要达成共识，这种现象可能会被扭转。我们对我们的建议“在两次实验之一中最好地达成共识”的建议获得了一些积极的支持。我们建议缺乏更强的积极支持可能与研究主题的上限效应有关，并建议研究有效的方法以达成共识，这是未来研究的一个富有成果的领域。

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