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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of risk research >Uncertainty handling in estimative intelligence - challenges and requirements from both analyst and consumer perspectives
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Uncertainty handling in estimative intelligence - challenges and requirements from both analyst and consumer perspectives

机译：估计情报中的不确定性处理-分析人员和消费者角度的挑战和要求

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Important assessments of events and activities relating to military, terrorist and hybrid adversaries and the intentions of foreign governments, are made every day, usually involving subjective or estimative' probabilities and an associated level of confidence. The way in which these uncertainties are accessed and communicated can potentially have enormous impact and consequences. Challenges are reinforced by increasingly complex intelligence problems for which the contemporary analytic paradigm is not tailored to cope. It is important to better understand how defence intelligence analysts and consumers handle uncertainty in their assessment and decision support activities and what challenges and requirements they face in doing so. This is mainly achieved by the use of semi-structured interviews with a sample of very senior consumers of military intelligence (mostly Flag Officers of the Norwegian Armed Forces) and focus group interviews with groups of Norwegian intelligence analysts. In general, respondents found it difficult or challenging to conceptualize uncertainty analytically. This has implications for the communication of uncertainty and its use in decision-making within the current framework. Secondly, respondents were receptive to suggested potential improvements to the existing framework. One such suggestion involved a differentiated framework, offering different levels of uncertainty resolution in different situations, although none of the respondents had any experience of such a framework for assessing or communicating uncertainty. We conclude with some recommendations to improve the process of uncertainty and risk communication in this important and consequential application area. Having particular implications for policy, we recommend that analysts follow a differentiated approach in handling different situations and problems comprising uncertainty, rather than pursuing a standard solution as is current practice.
机译：每天都会对与军事，恐怖和混合敌人以及外国政府的意图有关的事件和活动进行重要评估，通常涉及主观或估计的概率以及相关的信心水平。这些不确定性的访问和传达方式可能会产生巨大的影响和后果。日益复杂的情报问题加剧了挑战，而现代分析范式无法适应这些难题。重要的是要更好地了解国防情报分析师和消费者如何应对评估和决策支持活动中的不确定性，以及他们在这样做时面临的挑战和要求。这主要是通过使用半结构化访谈与一些非常高级的军事情报消费者（主要是挪威武装部队船旗官）样本进行访谈，以及对挪威情报分析师小组进行的焦点小组访谈。总体而言，受访者发现很难通过分析将不确定性概念化。这对不确定性的传达及其在当前框架内的决策中的使用具有影响。其次，受访者接受建议对现有框架进行潜在的改进。一个这样的建议涉及一个差异化的框架，在不同情况下提供不同级别的不确定性解决方案，尽管没有一个受访者对评估或传达不确定性有这样一个框架的经验。最后，我们提出了一些建议，以改善这一重要而重要的应用领域中的不确定性和风险沟通过程。对于政策有特殊的意义，我们建议分析师在处理包括不确定性在内的不同情况和问题时采取差异化的方法，而不是像当前那样追求标准的解决方案。

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