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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of risk research >When unlikely outcomes occur: the role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility
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When unlikely outcomes occur: the role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility

机译：发生不太可能的结果：通信格式在维持通信商可信度方面的作用

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The public expects science to reduce or eliminate uncertainty, yet scientific forecasts are probabilistic (at best) and it is simply not possible to make predictions with certainty. Whilst an unlikely' outcome is not expected to occur, an unlikely' outcome will still occur one in five times (based on a translation of 20%), according to a frequentist perspective. When an unlikely' outcome does occur, the prediction may be deemed erroneous', reflecting a misunderstanding of the nature of uncertainty. Such misunderstandings could have ramifications for the subsequent (perceived) credibility of the communicator who made such a prediction. We examine whether the effect of erroneous' predictions on perceived credibility differs according to the communication format used. Specifically, we consider verbal, numerical (point and range [widearrow]) and mixed format probability expressions. We consistently find that subsequent perceptions are least affected by the erroneous' prediction when it is expressed numerically, regardless of whether it is a point or range estimate. Our findings suggest numbers should be used in consequential risk communications regarding unlikely' events, wherever possible.
机译：公众预计科学可以减少或消除不确定性，但科学预测是概率（充其量），根本无法以确定性做出预测。据频繁的观点，虽然常见的观点，虽然不太可能发生“不太可能发生”未能发生的结果，但不太可能的结果仍然是五次（基于翻译20％）。当发生不太可能的结果时，预测可能被视为错误的“，反映了对不确定性的性质的误解。这种误解可能会对沟通者的随后（感知）的可信度进行后果。我们检查错误'预测对感知信誉的影响是否根据所使用的通信格式而不同。具体而言，我们考虑口头，数值（点和范围[宽/窄]）和混合格式概率表达式。我们一致地发现，随后的感知是在数字上表达的情况下的错误的预测，无论它是否是点或范围估计。我们的调查结果建议数字应以其他风险通信用于不太可能“可能的事件。

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