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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of risk research >When probabilities change: perceptions and implications of trends in uncertain climate forecasts
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When probabilities change: perceptions and implications of trends in uncertain climate forecasts

机译：当概率发生变化时：趋势在不确定的气候预测中的感知和含义

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Past research has revealed a trend effect when people are faced with a revised probabilistic forecast: A forecasted event that has become more (vs. less) certain is taken to signal a trend toward even stronger (weaker) certainty in future revisions of the forecast. The present paper expands this finding by exploring the boundary conditions of the trend effect and how it affects judgments of the forecaster. InStudy 1, the trend effect was shown to persist when receivers process the forecast more deliberately, by considering reasons for the revision. In Study 2, trend continuation was predicted even when the two forecasts were made by different experts at different points in time. Study 3 demonstrated that the effect disappears when receivers are given an earlier forecast disrupting the linearity of the trend (e.g. a 60-70% sequence preceded by a 70% forecast). In Study 4, two forecasters were perceived as more in agreement when revising divergent probabilities in the same rather than in opposite directions. If the event occurs, a forecast with downgraded probability (e.g. from 50 to 40%) was judged to be less accurate than an equally uncertain single forecast (40%). These results demonstrate the robustness of the trend effect based on two forecasts, affecting not only receivers' expectations of what comes next, but also their perceptions of the forecaster and of forecast accuracy. The findings have implications for how people communicate and understand risks and other uncertain events in areas such as climate science, weather prediction and societal risk assessments.
机译：当人们面临修订的概率预测时，过去的研究揭示了趋势效应：一个预测的事件已经变得越来越多（与较少）肯定会在未来的预测修订中发出甚至更强（较弱）确定性的趋势。本文通过探索趋势效应的边界条件以及它如何影响预测员的判断来扩展这一发现。练习1，当接收者更加刻意地处理预测时，趋势效果仍然存在，通过考虑修订的原因。在研究2中，即使在不同的专家在不同点及时的不同专家提出两种预测，也预测了趋势延续。研究3证明了当接收器的效果发生了较早的预测时，效果消失了趋势的线性度（例如，60-70％预测之前的60-70％）。在研究4中，在同一而非相反的方向上修改不同的概率时，将在同一致的情况下感受到两个预报。如果发生事件，则判断与下调概率（例如50％至40％）的预测比同样不确定的单一预测（40％）不太准确。这些结果表明了基于两个预测的趋势效果的稳健性，影响了对接受者的期望，也影响了他们对预测的预测和预测准确性的看法。这些调查结果对人们在气候科学，天气预报和社会风险评估等领域的风险和其他不确定事件中有影响。

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