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Probability discounting of environmental gains: do we multiply or add up?

机译：概率折扣环境收益：我们乘以还是加起来？

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摘要

Individuals often discount and transform risky environmental outcomes into psychological certainty equivalences (CEs) during environmental decision-making. Their preference for different alternatives is influenced by the discounting degree. Our first experiment undertook a preliminary inspection of the probability discounting of environmental gains through a matching method; whereas in Experiment 2, the discounting rule of environmental gain was compared with monetary gain by a new line-projective method, which asked participants to project their subjective value evaluation explicitly on a line of specific length. The environmental gain and its mental value-equivalent monetary gain were analogical with respect to discounting degree and process model fitting. The probability discounting of both gains was better described by an additive-utility model than the normative exponential and hyperbolic models, which means that individuals were likely to discount the risky outcome by simply adding the disutility of uncertainty to the gain's nominal utility, rather than by multiplying the initial value by a discounting factor. It may be of great value in shedding light on the lay public evaluation of risky environmental interventions and boosting pro-environmental policy support.
机译：个人在环境决策期间经常折扣和将风险环境结果转变为心理确定性等效性（CES）。他们对不同替代品的偏好受折扣度的影响。我们的第一个实验通过匹配方法对环境收益的概率折扣进行了初步检查;在实验2中，通过新的线路投影方法将环境收益的折扣规则与货币增益进行比较，其中要求参与者在特定长度的一行中明确地将其主观价值评估项目。对于折扣度和工艺模型配件，环境收益及其精神价值相同的货币增益是类似的。两种收益的概率折扣比规范性指数和双曲模型更好地描述了添加剂 - 实用模型，这意味着只需将不确定的抵消性添加到增益的名义效用，而不是通过将初始值乘以折扣因子。它可能具有很大的价值，即在对风险环境干预的公众评估和提高亲环境政策支持方面的公开评估。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of risk research》 |2019年第12期|1479-1489|共11页
  • 作者

    Jiaxin Chen; Chuqian Chen; Yuqing Wang; Guibing He;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Zhejiang University Hangzhou China Department of Law and Politics Ningbo Institute of Technology Zhejiang University Ningbo China;

    Department of Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Zhejiang University Hangzhou China Department of Social Work and Social Administration the University of Hong Kong Hong Kong China;

    Department of Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Zhejiang University Hangzhou China;

    Department of Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Zhejiang University Hangzhou China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Probability discounting; environmental decision-making; hyperbolic model; additive-utility model;

    机译：概率折扣;环境决策;双曲模型;添加剂 - 实用新型;

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