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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the royal statistical society >Modelling the spatial extent and severity of extreme European windstorms
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Modelling the spatial extent and severity of extreme European windstorms

机译：模拟欧洲极端风暴的空间范围和严重程度

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摘要

Windstorms are a primary natural hazard affecting Europe that are commonly linked to substantial property and infrastructural damage and are responsible for the largest spatially aggregated financial losses. Such extreme winds are typically generated by extratropical cyclone systems originating in the North Atlantic and passing over Europe. Previous statistical studies tend to model extreme winds at a given set of sites, corresponding to inference in an Eulerian framework. Such inference cannot incorporate knowledge of the life cycle and progression of extratropical cyclones across the region and is forced to make restrictive assumptions about the extremal dependence structure. We take an entirely different approach which overcomes these limitations by working in a Lagrangian framework. Specifically, we model the development of windstorms over time, preserving the physical characteristics linking the windstorm and the cyclone track, the path of local vorticity maxima, and make a key finding that the spatial extent of extratropical windstorms becomes more localized as its magnitude increases irrespective of the location of the storm track. Our model allows simulation of synthetic windstorm events to derive the joint distributional features over any set of sites giving physically consistent extrapolations to rarer events. From such simulations improved estimates of this hazard can be achieved in terms of both intensity and area affected.
机译：暴风雪是影响欧洲的主要自然灾害，通常与大量财产和基础设施破坏有关，是造成最大的空间累积经济损失的原因。这种极端风通常是由起源于北大西洋并经过欧洲的温带气旋系统产生的。先前的统计研究倾向于对给定地点处的极端风进行建模，这与欧拉框架中的推论相对应。这种推论不能吸收有关整个地区温带气旋的生命周期和进展的知识，并且被迫对极端依赖结构做出限制性假设。我们采用完全不同的方法，通过在拉格朗日框架中进行工作来克服这些限制。具体而言，我们模拟了暴风雪随时间的发展，保留了与暴风雪和气旋轨道相关的物理特征，局部涡度最大值的路径，并做出了关键发现，即随着其大小的增加，温带风暴的空间范围变得更加局限风暴轨迹的位置。我们的模型允许模拟合成暴风雨事件，以得出任何地点集合上的联合分布特征，从而对稀有事件进行物理一致的推断。通过这种模拟，就强度和受影响面积而言，都可以实现对该危害的改进估算。

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