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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of socio-economics >Life is now! Time preferences and crime: Aggregate evidence from the Italian regions
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Life is now! Time preferences and crime: Aggregate evidence from the Italian regions

机译：生命在于现在！时间偏好和犯罪：来自意大利地区的汇总证据

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摘要

This paper tests the relationship between time preferences and crime rates as posited by Davis (1988), whose theoretical analysis suggests that individuals' attitude towards the future significantly affects their propensity to commit crime. Our empirical analysis is based on a panel of Italian regions from 2003 to 2007. Various proxies for time preferences are considered: the consumer credit share out of the total amount of loans to households, the share of obese individuals out of the total population, the rate of marriages out of the total population, and the teenage pregnancy rate. Controlling for a great number of factors suggested by the scientific literature on the determinants of crime, adding to the model also time and regional fixed effects, and clustering standard errors to account for both serial and panel correlations, our results basically provide support to the 'Davis' hypothesis' for property crimes, while for violent crimes there seems to be less evidence that these are higher where people discount the future more heavily. Moreover, there is no evidence of a reverse effect from crime to time preferences at this aggregate level.
机译：本文测试了戴维斯（1988）提出的时间偏好与犯罪率之间的关系，其理论分析表明，个人对未来的态度显着影响了他们犯罪的倾向。我们的经验分析是基于2003年至2007年意大利地区的一个小组进行的。考虑了时间偏好的各种代理：消费者信贷在家庭贷款总额中所占的份额，肥胖个体在总人口中所占的份额，总人口中的结婚率，以及青少年怀孕率。控制科学文献中有关犯罪决定因素的大量因素，将时间和区域固定效应添加到模型中，并聚类标准误差以考虑序列和面板相关性，我们的结果基本上为“戴维斯关于财产犯罪的“假设”，而对于暴力犯罪，似乎很少有证据表明人们对未来的重视程度更高。而且，没有证据表明在这一总体水平上犯罪对时间的偏好会产生相反的影响。

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