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The role of preferences in disagreements over scientific hypothesis: Evidence on cognitive bias in formation of beliefs

机译：偏好在科学假设分歧中的作用：关于信念形成中认知偏见的证据

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Have you ever heard the joke that if you ask three economists for an economic policy advice, you will get at least four different answers? This study takes the joke seriously by investigating whether an agent's wish for a scientific hypothesis to be true affects the agent's belief that the hypothesis is true. Using theories in psychology of cognitive bias we argue that, given certain circumstances, a positive preference-expectation relationship is actually expected, and we test the theoretical prediction using a sample of students in economics and science. The scientific hypothesis used in our empirical inquiry is the highly debated Porter hypothesis. The Porter hypothesis suggests that environmental regulations, such as those restricting firms to reduce pollution, stimulate innovations and create a win-win situation for the environment and for firms. Our results show that the students in economics who care more about the environment are more likely to believe in the Porter hypothesis. The results are in line with Fuchs et al. (1998) and Mayer (2001) who found that there is a correlation between economists' policy positions and their ideological values.
机译：您是否曾听到过这样一个笑话，即如果您向三位经济学家提出经济政策建议，您将至少得到四个不同的答案？这项研究通过调查代理人对科学假设为真的愿望是否会影响代理人对假设为真的信念，认真地讲了这个笑话。使用认知偏向心理学的理论，我们认为，在某些情况下，实际上期望存在积极的偏好-期望关系，并且我们使用经济学和科学专业的学生样本对理论预测进行了检验。在我们的实证研究中使用的科学假设是饱受争议的波特假设。波特假说表明，环境法规，例如那些限制企业减少污染的法规，刺激了创新并为环境和企业创造了双赢的局面。我们的结果表明，对环境更加关注的经济学专业学生更有可能相信波特假说。结果与Fuchs等人的研究一致。 （1998年）和梅耶（2001年），他们发现经济学家的政策立场与其意识形态价值之间存在关联。

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