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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets >Satellite Reliability: Statistical Data Analysis and Modeling
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Satellite Reliability: Statistical Data Analysis and Modeling

机译：卫星可靠性：统计数据分析和建模

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摘要

The technical literature has long recognized the importance of satellite reliability, but a statistical analysis of expansive on-orbit failure data is still lacking. As a result, inconsistencies persist in the literature due to the absence of an empirical basis for settling the issues, for example, regarding the existence or absence of satellite infant mortality. Weibull distributions with a shape parameter larger than one are commonly used to model satellite reliability. This choice for the shape parameter fails to capture infant mortality and is shown here to be flawed. The present work fills a gap in the technical literature by 1) conducting a thorough nonparametric statistical analysis of recent on-orbit failure data, 2) fitting a parametric model to the actual/observed spacecraft reliability, and 3) quantifying the relative contribution of each subsystem to satellite failure and identifying the subsystems that drive spacecraft unreliability. The sample analyzed in this study consists of 1584 Earth-orbiting satellites successfully launched between January 1990 and October 2008. The results presented here should prove useful for the space industry, for example, in redesigning satellite (and subsystem) test and screening programs and in providing an empirical basis for subsystem redundancy allocation and reliability growth plans.
机译：长期以来，技术文献已经认识到卫星可靠性的重要性，但是仍然缺乏对扩展的在轨故障数据的统计分析。结果，由于缺乏解决这些问题的经验基础，例如关于是否存在卫星婴儿死亡率的经验基础，文献中仍然存在不一致之处。形状参数大于1的Weibull分布通常用于对卫星可靠性进行建模。形状参数的这种选择无法捕获婴儿的死亡率，并且此处显示有缺陷。当前的工作填补了技术文献中的空白，包括：1）对近期在轨故障数据进行彻底的非参数统计分析； 2）使参数模型适合实际/观察到的航天器可靠性；以及3）量化每个模型的相对贡献子系统导致卫星故障，并确定导致航天器不可靠的子系统。本研究中分析的样本包括1990年1月至2008年10月成功发射的1584颗地球轨道卫星。此处介绍的结果应证明对航天工业有用，例如，在重新设计卫星（和子系统）测试和筛选程序以及为子系统冗余分配和可靠性增长计划提供经验基础。

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