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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets >Hazard Analysis for Uncontrolled Space Vehicle Reentry
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Hazard Analysis for Uncontrolled Space Vehicle Reentry

机译：航天器不受控进入的危险性分析

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Satellites in low Earth orbit ultimately reenter the Earth's atmosphere at the end of the mission due to orbital decay. Although most of the mass of a typical space vehicle is destroyed and rendered harmless, a significant portion survives to ground impact. As the number of reentry events has increased in recent years, some surviving components have impacted near populated areas and drawn attention to the casualty risk. In response to this hazard, the U.S. government developed guidelines to mitigate the danger posed by randomly reentering space objects that survive to surface impact. If an upper bound for casualty expectation is exceeded, a controlled deorbit/reentry into a sparsely populated region is recommended. This paper develops the mathematical methods needed to compute risk to people and property from uncontrolled reentries. The impact probability density function for surviving debris objects associated with an uncontrolled reentry is derived. The impact probability density function is used with the population density function to compute the casualty expectation. Examples of casualty expectation and risk of damage to property are provided.
机译：由于轨道衰减，处于低地球轨道的卫星最终会在任务结束时重新进入地球大气层。尽管典型航天器的大部分质量都被破坏并变得无害，但仍有很大一部分幸免于难。近年来，随着再入事件的数量增加，一些幸存的人员影响了人口稠密地区附近，并提请注意伤亡风险。为了应对这种危险，美国政府制定了一些指南，以减轻因随机重新进入能承受表面撞击的空间物体而造成的危险。如果超过了伤亡预期的上限，建议对进入人口稀少地区的受控的脱轨/重返轨道进行控制。本文提出了计算不受控制的再入境对人员和财产构成风险的数学方法。推导了幸存碎片对象与不受控制的再进入相关联的撞击概率密度函数。冲击概率密度函数与人口密度函数一起使用以计算伤亡期望值。提供了预期的伤亡人数和财产损失风险的示例。

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