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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets >Probabilistic Reliability Analysis of Carbon/Carbon Composite Nozzle Cones with Uncertain Parameters
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Probabilistic Reliability Analysis of Carbon/Carbon Composite Nozzle Cones with Uncertain Parameters

机译：参数不确定的碳/碳复合喷嘴锥的概率可靠性分析

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摘要

A methodology to perform the probabilistic and reliability-based design of a novel carbon/carbon rocket nozzle subjected to operational thermal and mechanical loads is described in this paper. In this methodology, the nozzle is represented by a multiphysics finite element model capable of predicting the temperature and stress fields of the exit cone. The analysis shows that the most likely failure modes of the exit cone are related to compressive stress along the axial and hoop directions, as well as interlaminar shear. The probabilistic models used in this methodology account for the uncertainty of the material properties by using uniform and normal distributions and different variances. The reliability analysis is performed by using surface response methods. A global sensitivity analysis is also carried out using polynomial expansion chaos surface response models. A particular novelty of the analysis is the use of Sobol indices to rank the importance of the single uncertain parameters in the models. The methodology provides a high level of confidence and robustness in determining that the axial thermal conductivity of the carbon/carbon material is the most critical material property to affect the three main failure modes, whereas the coefficient of the thermal expansion and the heat capacity play a very marginal role.
机译：本文介绍了一种基于概率和可靠性的新型碳/碳火箭喷嘴的设计方法，该喷嘴受到了热和机械载荷的作用。在这种方法中，喷嘴由能够预测出口锥的温度和应力场的多物理场有限元模型表示。分析表明，出口锥最可能的破坏模式与沿轴向和环向的压应力以及层间剪切有关。此方法中使用的概率模型通过使用均匀和正态分布以及不同的方差来解释材料属性的不确定性。通过使用表面响应方法进行可靠性分析。还使用多项式展开混沌表面响应模型进行了全局灵敏度分析。该分析的一个特别新颖之处是使用Sobol指数对模型中单个不确定参数的重要性进行排名。在确定碳/碳材料的轴向热导率是影响三种主要失效模式的最关键的材料特性时，该方法学提供了高度的置信度和鲁棒性，而热膨胀系数和热容却在非常边缘的角色。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets》 |2019年第6期|1765-1774|共10页
  • 作者

    Xie Weihua; Yang Yuanjian; Meng Songhe; Peng Tao; Yuan Jie; Scarpa Fabrizio; Xu Chenghai; Jin Hua;

  • 作者单位

    Harbin Inst Technol Sci & Technol Adv Composites Special Environm Lab 2 Yikuang St Harbin 150080 Heilongjiang Peoples R China;

    STAR UAV Syst Co Ltd 2999 Westport Ave Chengdu 610200 Sichuan Peoples R China;

    Imperial Coll London Dynam Grp Dept Mech Engn London SW7 2AZ England;

    Univ Bristol Bristol Composites Inst ACCIS Bristol BS8 1TR Avon England;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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