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首页> 外文期刊>The Journal of Systems and Software >Better sure than safe? Over-confidence in judgement based software development effort prediction intervals
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Better sure than safe? Over-confidence in judgement based software development effort prediction intervals

机译：比安全更好？对基于判断的软件开发工作量预测间隔过于自信

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摘要

The uncertainty of a software development effort estimate can be indicated through a prediction interval (PI), i.e., the estimated minimum and maximum effort corresponding to a specific confidence level. For example, a project manager may be "90% confident" or believe that is it "very likely" that the effort required to complete a project will be between 8000 and 12,000 work-hours. This paper describes results from four studies (Studies A-D) on human judgement (expert) based PIs of software development effort. Study A examines the accuracy of the PIs in real software projects. The results suggest that the PIs were generally much too narrow to reflect the chosen level of confidence, i.e., that there was a strong over-confidence. Studies B-D try to understand the reasons for the observed over-confidence. Study B examines the possibility that the over-confidence is related to type of experience or estimation process. Study C examines the possibility that the concept of confidence level is difficult to interpret for software estimators. Finally, Study D examines the possibility that there are unfortunate feedback mechanisms that reward over-confidence.
机译：可以通过预测间隔（PI）来表示软件开发工作量估计的不确定性，即，与特定置信度相对应的估计的最小和最大工作量。例如，项目经理可能“有90％的信心”，或者认为“很有可能”完成一个项目所需的工作在8000至12,000个工作小时之间。本文描述了基于人类判断（专家）基于软件开发工作的PI的四项研究（研究A-D）的结果。研究A检查了实际软件项目中PI的准确性。结果表明，效绩指标通常过于狭窄，无法反映所选的置信度，即存在强烈的过度自信。研究B-D试图了解观察到的过度自信的原因。研究B检验了过度自信与经验类型或估计过程有关的可能性。研究C检验了难以为软件估计器解释置信度概念的可能性。最后，研究D研究了不幸的反馈机制会奖励过度自信的可能性。

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