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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >A FRAMEWORK TO DEVELOP NATIONWIDE FLOODING EXTENTS USING CLIMATE MODELS AND ASSESS FORECAST POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD RESILIENCE
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A FRAMEWORK TO DEVELOP NATIONWIDE FLOODING EXTENTS USING CLIMATE MODELS AND ASSESS FORECAST POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD RESILIENCE

机译：利用气候模型开发全国范围洪水泛滥的框架并评估洪水灾情预测潜力

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摘要

The methods used to simulate flood inundation extents can be significantly improved by high-resolution spatial data captured over a large area. This paper presents a hydraulic analysis methodology and framework to estimate national-level floodplain changes likely to be generated by climate change. The hydraulic analysis was performed using existing published Federal Emergency Management Agency 100-year floodplains and estimated 100- and 10-year return period peak flow discharges. The discharges were estimated using climate variables from global climate models for two future growth scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 8.5. River channel dimensions were developed based on existing regional United States Geological Survey publications relating bankfull discharges with channel characteristics. Mathematic relationships for channel bankfull topwidth, depth, and side slope to contributing drainage area measured at model cross sections were developed. The proposed framework can be utilized at a national level to identify critical areas for flood risk assessment. Existing hydraulic models at these hot spots could be repurposed for near-real-time flood forecasting operations. Revitalizing these models for use in simulating flood scenarios in near-real time through the use of meteorological forecasts could provide useful information for first responders of flood emergencies.
机译：通过在大面积上捕获的高分辨率空间数据，可以大大改善用于模拟洪水泛滥程度的方法。本文提出了一种水力分析方法和框架，以估算可能由气候变化引起的国家级洪泛区变化。使用现有的已发布的联邦紧急事务管理局100年洪泛区以及估计的100年和10年恢复期峰值流量进行水力分析。排放量是使用全球气候模型中两个未来增长情景的气候变量估算的：代表性浓度途径2.6和8.5。河道尺寸是根据现有的美国地区地质调查区域出版物得出的，这些出版物将河岸满溢流量与河道特征联系起来。建立了在模型截面处测得的河岸全宽，深度和边坡与排水面积的数学关系。提议的框架可以在国家一级使用，以识别洪水风险评估的关键区域。这些热点的现有水力模型可以重新用于近实时洪水预报作业。通过使用气象预报振兴这些模型以近乎实时地模拟洪水情况，可以为洪水紧急情况的第一响应者提供有用的信息。

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