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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >TOWARDS REAL-TIME CONTINENTAL SCALE STREAMFLOW SIMULATION IN CONTINUOUS AND DISCRETE SPACE
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TOWARDS REAL-TIME CONTINENTAL SCALE STREAMFLOW SIMULATION IN CONTINUOUS AND DISCRETE SPACE

机译：连续和离散空间中的实时连续尺度流模拟

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The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts floods at approximately 3,600 locations across the United States (U.S.). However, the river network, as defined by the 1:100,000 scale National Hydrography Dataset-Plus (NHDPlus) dataset, consists of 2.7 million river segments. Through the National Flood Interoperability Experiment, a continental scale streamflow simulation and forecast system was implemented and continuously operated through the summer of 2015. This system leveraged the WRF-Hydro framework, initialized on a 3-km grid, the Routing Application for the Parallel Computation of Discharge river routing model, operating on the NHDPlus, and real-time atmospheric forcing to continuously forecast streamflow. Although this system produced forecasts, this paper presents a study of the three-month nowcast to demonstrate the capacity to seamlessly predict reach scale streamflow at the continental scale. In addition, this paper evaluates the impact of reservoirs, through a case study in Texas. Validation of the uncalibrated model using observed hourly streamflow at 5,701 U.S. Geological Survey gages shows 26% demonstrate PBias|25%|, 11% demonstrate Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE)0.25, and 6% demonstrate both PBias|25%| and NSE0.25. When evaluating the impact of reservoirs, the analysis shows when reservoirs are included, NSE0.25 for 56% of the gages downstream while NSE0.25 for 11% when they are not. The results presented here provide a benchmark for the evolving hydrology program within the NWS and supports their efforts to develop a reach scale flood forecasting system for the country.
机译：国家气象局（NWS）预测全美（美国）约有3600个地点发生洪灾。但是，按1：100,000比例的国家水文数据集（NHDPlus）数据集定义的河网由270万条河段组成。通过国家洪水互操作性实验，实施了大陆规模的水流模拟和预报系统，并一直持续运行到2015年夏季。该系统利用了WRF-Hydro框架，该框架在3公里长的网格上进行了初始化，这是并行计算的路由应用程序在NHDPlus上运行的排放河流路由模型的改进，以及实时大气强迫以连续预测流量。尽管此系统产生了预报，但本文提出了对为期三个月的临近预报的研究，以证明能够无缝地预测大陆规模的到达规模流量。此外，本文通过德克萨斯州的案例研究评估了水库的影响。使用观察到的每小时流量（在5,701美国）对未校准模型进行验证。地质调查表显示，有26％的人PBias | 25％|，有11％的人Nash-Sutcliffe效率（NSE）0.25，有6％的人都有两个PBias | 25％|。和NSE0.25。在评估储层的影响时，分析表明，当包含储层时，下游56％的量具为NSE0.25，而没有储层则为NSE0.25。此处提供的结果为NWS内不断发展的水文计划提供了基准，并支持他们为该国开发范围洪水预报系统的努力。

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