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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSES TO CLIMATE AND LAND-USE CHANGES ALONG THE NORTH AMERICAN EAST COAST: A 110-YEAR HISTORICAL RECONSTRUCTION
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HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSES TO CLIMATE AND LAND-USE CHANGES ALONG THE NORTH AMERICAN EAST COAST: A 110-YEAR HISTORICAL RECONSTRUCTION

机译：在北美洲东部沿海气候变化和土地利用变化的水文响应：110年的历史重建

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摘要

The North American east coast (NAEC) region experienced significant climate and land-use changes in the past century. To explore how these changes have affected land water cycling, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM 2.0) was used to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of runoff and river discharge during 1901-2010 in the study area. Annual runoff over the NAEC was 420 +/- 61mm/yr (average +/- standard deviation). Runoff increased in parts of the northern NAEC but decreased in some areas of the southern NAEC. Annual freshwater discharge from the study area was 378 +/- 61km(3)/yr (average +/- standard deviation). Factorial simulation experiments suggested that climate change and variability explained 97.5% of the interannual variability of runoff and also resulted in the opposite changes in runoff in northern and southern regions of the NAEC. Land-use change reduced runoff by 5-22mm/yr from 1931 to 2010, but the impacts were divergent over the Piedmont region and Coastal Plain areas of the southern NAEC. Land-use change impacts were more significant at local and watershed spatial scales rather than at regional scales. Different responses of runoff to changing climate and land-use should be noted in future water resource management. Hydrological impacts of afforestation and deforestation as well as urbanization should also be noted by land-use policy makers.
机译：在过去的一个世纪中，北美东海岸（NAEC）地区经历了重大的气候和土地利用变化。为了探讨这些变化如何影响陆地水循环，使用动态土地生态系统模型（DLEM 2.0）来研究研究区域1901-2010年期间径流和河流流量的时空变化。 NAEC的年径流量为420 +/- 61毫米/年（平均+/-标准偏差）。北部NAEC的部分地区径流增加，但南部NAEC的某些地区径流减少。研究区域的年度淡水排放量为378 +/- 61 km（3）/年（平均+/-标准偏差）。因子模拟实验表明，气候变化和变异性解释了径流年际变化的97.5％，并且还导致了NAEC北部和南部地区径流的相反变化。从1931年到2010年，土地用途的变化使径流减少了5-22毫米/年，但影响范围在NAEC南部的皮埃蒙特地区和沿海平原地区不同。土地利用变化的影响在地方和流域空间尺度上比在区域尺度上更重要。在未来的水资源管理中，应注意径流对气候变化和土地利用的不同反应。土地利用政策制定者还应注意造林和毁林以及城市化对水文的影响。

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