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Assessment of Flood Vulnerability Based on CMIP5 Climate Projections in South Korea

机译：基于CMIP5气候预测的韩国洪水脆弱性评估

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The objective of this article was to assess flood vulnerability based on the representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios at city and county levels. A quantile mapping method was adopted to correct bias that is inherent in climate change scenarios. A series of proxy variables related to climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were chosen to assess flood vulnerability. Proxy variables were standardized using the Z-score method. Principal component analysis was carried out to calculate the weighting of proxy variables. The study area was the Korean peninsula. The spatial resolution was on a city and county basis and the temporal resolution was 1990s, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s (divided into 1976-2005, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). In the spatial comparison, we found that the areas with high-level flood vulnerability increased over time in the central region, including metropolitan areas, and near the southern coast. In the temporal comparison, we found that the RCP4.5 scenario showed a tendency to increase steadily and the RCP8.5 scenario showed a tendency todecrease in the 2055s slightly and increase again in the 2085s. The study findings may provide useful data for the determination of priority for countermeasure development, though robustness of these findings with additional future projections should be established.
机译：本文的目的是根据市和县一级的典型集中路径（RCP）情景评估洪水脆弱性。采用分位数映射方法来纠正气候变化场景中固有的偏差。选择了一系列与气候暴露，敏感性和适应能力有关的代理变量来评估洪水脆弱性。代理变量使用Z评分方法进行了标准化。进行主成分分析以计算代理变量的权重。研究区域是朝鲜半岛。空间分辨率基于城市和县，时间分辨率为1990年代，2025年代，2055年代和2085年代（分为1976-2005、2011-2040、2041-2070和2071-2100）。在空间比较中，我们发现，随着时间的流逝，中部地区（包括大都市地区）和南部海岸附近的高洪灾脆弱性地区逐渐增加。在时间比较中，我们发现RCP4.5场景呈现稳定增长的趋势，RCP8.5场景呈现出在2055年代略有下降并在2085年代再次增长的趋势。研究结果可能为确定对策开发的优先顺序提供有用的数据，尽管这些结果的稳健性和未来的其他预测也应建立。

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