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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >Considering Climate Change in the Estimation of Long-Term Flood Risks of Devils Lake in North Dakota
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Considering Climate Change in the Estimation of Long-Term Flood Risks of Devils Lake in North Dakota

机译：在北达科他州恶魔湖的长期洪灾风险评估中考虑气候变化

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摘要

Terminal lakes are impacted by regional changes in climate. Devils Lake (DL), North Dakota, United States (U.S.), is a case in which a prolonged shift in the precipitation pattern resulted in a 10-m water-level rise over the past two decades, which cost over one billion U.S. dollars in mitigation. Currently, DL is 1.5m from an uncontrolled overspill to the nearby Sheyenne River, which could lead to unprecedented environmental, social, and economic costs. Water outlets recently implemented in the lake to slow the water-level rise and prevent an uncontrolled overspill are subject to significant concerns over the introduction of invasive species and downstream water quality. We developed a hydrological model of the DL basin using the soil and water assessment tool and analyzed DL's overspill probability using an ensemble of statistically downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections of the future climate. The results indicate a significant likelihood (7.3-20.0%) of overspill in the next few decades in the absence of outlets; some members of the GCM integration ensemble suggest an exceedance probability of over 85.0 and 95.0% for the 2020s and 2050s, respectively. Full-capacity outlets radically reduce the probability of DL overspill and are able to partially mitigate the problem by decreasing the average lake level by approximately 1.9 and 1.5m in the 2020s and 2050s, respectively.
机译：终端湖受到区域气候变化的影响。美国北达科他州的魔鬼湖（DL）是一个案例，在过去的二十年中，降水模式的长期变化导致水位上升了10米，耗资超过10亿美元在缓解。当前，从不受控制的溢流到附近的Sheyenne河的DL为150万，这可能导致前所未有的环境，社会和经济损失。最近在湖中实施的出水口，以减缓水位上升并防止不受控制的溢漏，这引起了对入侵物种的引入和下游水质的极大关注。我们使用土壤和水评估工具开发了DL流域的水文模型，并通过对未来气候进行统计缩减的总体环流模型（GCM）预测合集分析了DL的溢漏概率。结果表明，在没有网点的情况下，未来几十年内有可能发生过度泄漏的可能性很大（7.3-20.0％）； GCM集成团的一些成员建议，到2020年代和2050年代的超越概率分别超过85.0％和95.0％。满负荷的出口从根本上降低了DL溢漏的可能性，并且能够通过在2020年代和2050年代分别将平均湖泊水位分别降低1.9和1.5m来部分缓解该问题。

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