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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >A Level-of-Service Concept for Planning Future Water Supply Projects under Probabilistic Demand and Supply Framework
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A Level-of-Service Concept for Planning Future Water Supply Projects under Probabilistic Demand and Supply Framework

机译：在概率需求和供应框架下规划未来供水项目的服务水平概念

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摘要

One of the most challenging tasks of water supply utilities is planning the timing and quantity of new water supply sources as demand for water consumption grows. Many water supply utilities target on meeting 100% of their customers' needs based on scenario-based deterministic demand projections numbers even though there are uncertainties in both supply and demand values. This may result in under or overly conservative approach in assessing future needs. In this article, a level-of-service concept is introduced to capture a utility's willingness to accept a given level of risk, plan for it, and invoke a management strategy during extreme events than build a facility to accommodate those in planning for new water supply sources. Accounting for uncertainties in both supply and demand help quantify reliability by achieving a prescribed level of service. The major benefit of such an approach for planning future water supply is that it allows policy makers to evaluate the use of adaptive water management strategies and develop supply in an incremental fashion as demand warrants it. For example, if a given level of service cannot be reliably met with the existing system at a future time t, an incremental water supply project would come online to bring the required reliability level up but no more.
机译：供水公用事业最具挑战性的任务之一是随着用水需求的增长，计划新供水源的时间和数量。许多供水公用事业公司的目标是基于情景的确定性需求预测数字来满足其客户100％的需求，即使供需价值都存在不确定性。在评估未来需求时，这可能导致保守或过分保守的方法。在本文中，引入了服务水平概念，以捕获公用事业公司愿意接受给定风险水平，进行规划并在极端事件期间调用管理策略的意愿，而不是建立一种设施来容纳那些计划新水的设施。供应来源。解决供需方面的不确定性有助于通过达到规定的服务水平来量化可靠性。这种计划未来供水的方法的主要好处是，它使决策者可以评估自适应水管理策略的使用，并在需求许可时以递增的方式发展供水。例如，如果在将来的时间t不能用现有系统可靠地满足给定的服务水平，则增加的供水项目将上线以提高所需的可靠性水平，但仅此而已。

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