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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >EFFECTS OF LAND USE AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON STREAM TEMPERATURE Ⅱ: THRESHOLD EXCEEDANCE DURATION PROJECTIONS FOR FRESHWATER MUSSELS
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EFFECTS OF LAND USE AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON STREAM TEMPERATURE Ⅱ: THRESHOLD EXCEEDANCE DURATION PROJECTIONS FOR FRESHWATER MUSSELS

机译：土地利用和气候变化对流域温度的影响Ⅱ：淡水虾阈值超额持续时间的预测

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摘要

We developed a stochastic hourly stream temperature model (SHSTM) to estimate probability of exceeding given threshold temperature (T) for specified durations (24 and 96 h) to assess potential impacts on freshwater mussels in the upper Tar River, North Carolina. Simulated daily mean stream T from climate change (CC) and land-use (LU) change simulations for 2021-2030 and 2051-2060 were used as input to the SHSTM. Stream T observations in 2010 revealed only two sites with T above 30℃ for ＞24 h and Ts were never ＞31℃ for more than 24 h at any site. The SHSTM suggests that the probability, P, that T will exceed 32℃ for at least 96 h in a given year increased from P = 0, in the 20th Century, to P = 0.05 in 2021-2030 and to P = 0.14 in 2051-2060. The SHSTM indicated that CC had greater effects on P for 24 and 96 h durations than LU change. Increased P occurred primarily in higher order stream segments in the downstream reaches of the basin. The SHSTM indicated that hourly stream T responded to LU change on the daily scale and did not affect stream T for durations ＞24 h. The SHSTM indicated that known thermal thresholds for freshwater mussels could be exceeded within the next 50 years in many parts of the upper Tar River basin in North Carolina, which could have negative consequences on the recruitment of freshwater mussels.
机译：我们开发了一个随机的每小时水流温度模型（SHSTM），以估计在指定的持续时间（24和96小时）内超过给定阈值温度（T）的概率，以评估对北卡罗来纳州塔尔河上游淡水贻贝的潜在影响。将来自2021-2030和2051-2060的气候变化（CC）和土地利用（LU）变化模拟的每日平均流量T用作SHSTM的输入。 2010年的流T观测表明，只有两个站点的T值高于30℃的时间超过24小时，而Ts从未超过31℃的时间超过24小时。 SHSTM指出，在一年中，T至少在32小时内超过32℃的概率P从20世纪的P = 0增加到2021-2030的P = 0.05和2051年的P = 0.14 -2060。 SHSTM表明，CC对P的影响在24和96 h期间比LU变化更大。 P的增加主要发生在盆地下游的高阶流段。 SHSTM表明，每小时的流量T在日尺度上对LU的变化有响应，并且在持续时间> 24 h时不影响流量T。 SHSTM指出，在未来50年内，北卡罗来纳州塔尔河上游许多地区可能会超过淡水贻贝的已知温度阈值，这可能对淡水贻贝的招募产生负面影响。

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