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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >FILYOS RIVER STREAMFLOW RECONSTRUCTION FROM TREE-RING CHRONOLOGIES WITH NONPARAMETRIC APPROACHES
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FILYOS RIVER STREAMFLOW RECONSTRUCTION FROM TREE-RING CHRONOLOGIES WITH NONPARAMETRIC APPROACHES

机译：利用非参数方法从树环年代学重构FILYOS河流流

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摘要

The article presents nonparametric methods based on K nearest neighbors (KNNs), modified KNNs, and local polynomial techniques to reconstruct streamflow ensembles from tree-ring data in Filyos River region (Turkey). Three methods were tested using cross-validation for the overlap period, 1963-1997 for which the tree-ring and streamflow data are available. It was found that for the study where the length of the overlap period was limited, a nonparametric method based on a local polynomial technique provides simulations that have a slightly better solution than the other methods. After verification using standard statistical techniques, these methods were utilized to develop streamflow reconstructions from tree-ring data for the paleo-hydrologic period (1657-1963). These reconstructions of seasonal low and high flows were discussed with the obtained flood duration curve. They were also compared with the historical archives and other tree-ring reconstructions data available in the same river. Overall, the utility and limitations of these methods and the resulting streamflow simulations were discussed to assess the long-term discharge behavior of Filyos River and to evaluate water supply reliability.
机译：本文介绍了基于K最近邻（KNN），修改后的KNN和局部多项式技术的非参数方法，该方法可从Filyos河地区（土耳其）的年轮数据中重建流量集合。使用交叉验证对1963-1997年重叠期的三种方法进行了测试，可获得重叠的树木年轮和流量数据。已经发现，对于重叠周期长度受限制的研究，基于局部多项式技术的非参数方法提供的模拟解决方案比其他方法要好一些。在使用标准统计技术进行验证之后，这些方法被用来根据古水文时期（1657-1963年）的年轮数据开发流量重建。利用获得的洪水持续时间曲线讨论了季节性低流量和高流量的这些重建。他们还与同一条河流中的历史档案和其他年轮重建数据进行了比较。总的来说，讨论了这些方法的实用性和局限性以及由此产生的流量模拟，以评估菲利奥斯河的长期排放行为并评估供水可靠性。

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