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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE RELIABILITY OF WATER AND HYDROPOWER SUPPLY FROM A MULTIPURPOSE DAM IN SOUTH KOREA
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POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE RELIABILITY OF WATER AND HYDROPOWER SUPPLY FROM A MULTIPURPOSE DAM IN SOUTH KOREA

机译：气候变化对韩国多用途水坝水和水电供应可靠性的潜在影响

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摘要

Future climate change is a source of growing concerns for the supply of energy and resources, and it may have significant impacts on industry and the economy. Major effects are likely to arise from changes to the freshwater resources system, due to the connection of energy generation to these water systems. Using future climate data downscaled by a stochastic weather generator, this study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on long-term reservoir operations at the Chungju multipurpose dam in South Korea, specifically considering the reliability of the supply of water and hydropower. A reservoir model, Hydrologic Engineering Center-Reservoir System Simulation (HEC-ResSim), was used to simulate the ability of the dam to supply water and hydropower under different conditions. The hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to determine the HEC-ResSim boundary conditions, including daily dam inflow from the 6,642 km~2 watershed into the 2.75 Gm~3 capacity reservoir. Projections of the future climate indicate that temperature and precipitation during 2070-2099 (2080s) show an increase of +4.1℃ and 19.4%, respectively, based on the baseline (1990-2009). The results from the models suggest that, in the 2080s, the average annual water supply and hydropower production would change by +19.8 to +56.5% and by +33.9 to 92.3%, respectively. Model simulations suggest that under the new climatic conditions, the reliability of water and hydropower supply would be generally improved, as a consequence of increased dam inflow.
机译：未来的气候变化是对能源和资源供应日益关注的根源，并且可能对工业和经济产生重大影响。由于能源生产与这些水系统的联系，淡水资源系统的变化可能会产生重大影响。本研究使用随机天气产生器缩减的未来气候数据，研究了气候变化对韩国忠州多功能水坝长期水库运行的潜在影响，特别是考虑了水电供应的可靠性。水库模型，水文工程中心-水库系统模拟（HEC-ResSim），用于模拟大坝在不同条件下的供水和水力发电能力。使用水文模型土壤和水评估工具确定HEC-ResSim边界条件，包括从6,642 km〜2流域到2.75 Gm〜3容量水库的大坝日流量。对未来气候的预测表明，以基线（1990-2009年）为基准，2070-2099年（2080年代）的温度和降水分别增加了+ 4.1℃和19.4％。这些模型的结果表明，在2080年代，年均供水量和水力发电量将分别变化+19.8至+ 56.5％和+33.9至92.3％。模型模拟表明，在新的气候条件下，由于大坝流入的增加，水和水力发电的可靠性通常会得到提高。

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