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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >FLOODING IN TEXAS: EXAMINATION OF TEMPORAL CHANGES AND IMPACTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
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FLOODING IN TEXAS: EXAMINATION OF TEMPORAL CHANGES AND IMPACTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

机译：德克萨斯州的洪水：热带气旋的时间变化和影响的检验

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摘要

Annual maximum peak discharge measurements from 62 stations with a record of at least 70 years are used to assess extreme flooding in Texas at the regional scale. This work focuses on examination of the validity of the stationarity assumption and on the impact of tropical cyclones (TCs) on the upper tail of the flood peak distribution. We assess the validity of the stationarity assumption by testing the records for abrupt and gradual changes. The presence of abrupt changes in the first two moments of the flood peak distribution is assessed using the Lombard test. We use the Mann-Kendall test to examine the presence of monotonic trends. Results indicate that violations of the stationarity assumption are most commonly caused by abrupt changes, which are often associated with river regulation. We fit the time series of stationary flood records with the generalized extreme value distribution to investigate whether TCs control the upper tail of the flood peak distribution. Our results indicate that TCs play a diminished role in shaping the upper tail of the flood peak distribution compared with areas of the eastern United States subject to frequent TCs.
机译：来自62个站（至少有70年的记录）的年度最大洪峰流量测量值用于评估德克萨斯州在区域范围内的极端洪灾。这项工作的重点是对平稳性假设的有效性进行检查，以及热带气旋（TC）对洪峰分布上尾的影响。我们通过测试记录的突然和逐渐变化来评估平稳假设的有效性。使用Lombard测试评估洪水峰值分布的前两个时刻是否出现突变。我们使用Mann-Kendall检验来检验单调趋势的存在。结果表明，违反平稳性假设的最常见原因是突变，这通常与河流管制有关。我们用广义极值分布拟合固定洪水记录的时间序列，以研究TC是否控制洪水峰值分布的上尾部。我们的结果表明，与受频繁TC影响的美国东部地区相比，TC在塑造洪峰分布的上尾部方面起着减少的作用。

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